Avai
vs
Athletic Club
Garuda Lions Prediction: Avai
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Avai vs Athletic Club overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Avai vs Athletic Club
| Probability | Avai | Draw | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.9% | 27.8% | 32.3% |
| Market | 43.1% | 30.4% | 26.4% |
| Final | 42.3% | 29.8% | 27.9% |
| Edge | -3.2% | -2.6% | +5.8% |
Why Avai
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Avai vs Athletic Club match preview
Avai faces Athletic Club in a Brazil Serie B matchup, with Avai holding a 42% probability of winning compared to Athletic Club's 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Avai, occurring at a rate of 9%. Both teams are expected to contribute to the scoreline, as the model indicates a 57% chance of both teams scoring and a 52% likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Avai has recorded two wins, followed by three losses and one draw, while Athletic Club's last six matches include one win, three draws, and two losses. Historically, in their last three encounters, Avai has won once, while Athletic Club has secured two victories. The expected goals for Avai stand at 1.46, while Athletic Club is projected at 1.29.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Avai and Athletic Club expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.76
Avai and Athletic Club attack and defence ratings
Avai
Athletic Club
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
- Ponte Preta v Atletico Goianiense — match page
- Sport Recife v Fortaleza EC — match page
- Ceara vs Juventude
- America Mineiro vs Operario-PR — team news & stats
- CRB v Botafogo SP — match page
- São Bernardo vs Criciuma — team news & stats
- Vila Nova vs Novorizontino — team news & stats
- Goias vs Nautico Recife
Before and after this match
Avai vs Athletic Club markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avai | 42.3% | 2.36 | -3.2% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avai | 42.3% |
| Draw | 29.8% | |
| Athletic Club | 27.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.0% |
| No | 43.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Avai win | 19.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 60.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-0 | 8.1% |
Avai vs Athletic Club stats
Avai and Athletic Club recent form
| Avai |
WWLLLD |
| Athletic Club |
DLLDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Avai and Athletic Club season so far
Avai record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Athletic Club record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Avai vs Athletic Club head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Athletic Club | Avai | Brazil Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Avai | Athletic Club | Brazil Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2025-07-14 | Athletic Club | Avai | Brazil Serie B | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Avai vs Athletic Club odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.2%, draw 30.4%, away 26.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.14 | 3.04 | 3.53 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.05 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.12 | 3.04 | 3.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 3.05 | 3.72 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 2.92 | 3.07 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 2.90 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .