Cuiaba
vs
Avai
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cuiaba
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
Cuiaba vs Avai overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cuiaba vs Avai
| Probability | Cuiaba | Draw | Avai |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.1% | 26.5% | 13.4% |
| Market | 56.4% | 26.3% | 17.3% |
| Final | 57.3% | 26.3% | 16.3% |
| Edge | +3.6% | +0.2% | -3.9% |
Why Cuiaba
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cuiaba below the model: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Cuiaba vs Avai match preview
Cuiaba is set to face Avai in the Brazil Serie B, with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model indicates a strong probability of a Cuiaba victory at 65%, while the chances of a draw stand at 24% and Avai at 12%. The expected goals suggest a dominant performance from Cuiaba, projected at 1.84 compared to Avai's 0.65. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% probability.
In terms of recent form, Cuiaba has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Avai is struggling, having lost five consecutive matches and drawn once. Historically, in their last three encounters, Cuiaba has yet to secure a win, with Avai winning twice and one match ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cuiaba and Avai expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.27
Cuiaba and Avai attack and defence ratings
Cuiaba
Avai
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cuiaba vs Avai markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cuiaba | 57.3% | 1.74 | +3.6% | 1.68 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.7% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.9% | 2.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cuiaba | 57.3% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Avai | 16.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.2% |
| No | 60.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cuiaba win | 33.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.2% | |
| Loss | 39.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.7% |
| 2-0 | 13.7% | |
| 1-1 | 11.9% |
Cuiaba vs Avai stats
Cuiaba and Avai recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cuiaba and Avai season so far
Cuiaba record
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Avai record
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cuiaba vs Avai head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Avai | Cuiaba | Brazil Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Avai | Cuiaba | Brazil Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-11 | Cuiaba | Avai | Brazil Serie B | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cuiaba vs Avai odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.4%, draw 26.3%, away 17.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 3.52 | 5.28 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.50 | 5.70 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.60 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.68 | 3.70 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.63 | 3.52 | 5.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.66 | 3.58 | 5.60 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.28 | 4.65 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.40 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .