Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 33
Novorizontino
vs
Ponte Preta
5 – 1 Full time
| 11′ | Ronald Barcellos Arantes | ||
| 25′ | Juninho | ||
| 43′ | Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas | ||
| 45′ | Danilo | ||
| 45′ | Gustavo Felipe Almeida | ||
| 45′ | Romulo Azevedo Simão | ||
| 45′ | Danilo BarcelosFelipe Di Mauro Reis Coutinho | ||
| 45′ | Romulo Azevedo SimãoEduardo Brock | ||
| 45′ | Juan Rodrigues LeopoldinoKarl Vedova Junior | ||
| 51′ | Madson Ferreira dos Santos | ||
| 62′ | Gustavo Felipe Almeida | ||
| 67′ | Ronald Barcellos ArantesLuiz Otavio Maria | ||
| 67′ | Nicolas Morês da CruzMaykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho | ||
| 68′ | Denis | ||
| 69′ | Rodrigo·SouzaGustavo Lopes Teles | ||
| 69′ | DaniloRyan Henrique Pereira Andrade | ||
| 79′ | Madson Ferreira dos SantosAlexis·Alvarino | ||
| 81′ | Carlos Henrique de Moura Brito | ||
| 82′ | JuninhoMarlon | ||
| 84′ | Gustavo Lopes Teles | ||
| 85′ | David da HoraEmanuell Silva Ferreira | ||
| 88′ | Denis | ||
| 90′ | Eduardo Brock | ||
| 90′ | Ryan Henrique Pereira Andrade |
Novorizontino
90%
Draw
7%
Ponte Preta
3%
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 43 | Possession % | 57 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 23 | Fouls | 23 |
| 5 | Saves | 3 |
| 255 | Accurate passes | 367 |
Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
| Probability | Novorizontino | Draw | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 92.6% | 6.3% | 1.1% |
| Market | 89.0% | 7.7% | 3.3% |
| Final | 89.9% | 7.4% | 2.7% |
| Edge | +0.9% | -0.4% | -0.5% |
Why Novorizontino
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.34 vs 0.28.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
88%
3+ goals
70%
No goals
3%
Novorizontino and Ponte Preta expected goals
Novorizontino
3.34
Ponte Preta
0.28
Total expected goals: 3.62
Novorizontino and Ponte Preta attack and defence ratings
Novorizontino
Attack
1.45 +45%
Defence
0.68 -32%
Ponte Preta
Attack
0.42 -58%
Defence
1.76 +76%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta: result vs prediction
Novorizontino 5 – 1 Ponte Preta
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novorizontino | 89.9% | 1.11 | +0.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 97.3% | 1.03 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Novorizontino win | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novorizontino | 89.9% |
| Draw | 7.4% | |
| Ponte Preta | 2.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 23.8% |
| No | 76.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 97.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 92.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 10.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Novorizontino win | 79.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.6% | |
| Loss | 7.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 16.6% |
| 2-0 | 14.9% | |
| 4-0 | 13.9% |
Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta stats
Novorizontino and Ponte Preta recent form
| Novorizontino |
WWDLDW |
| Ponte Preta |
LLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Novorizontino and Ponte Preta going into this match
Novorizontino record
- They have won 16 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ponte Preta record
- They have won 3 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 18 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Novorizontino wins
3Draws
3Ponte Preta wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Ponte Preta | Novorizontino | Brazil Serie B | 0-2 |
| 2025-01-15 | Novorizontino | Ponte Preta | Paulista - A1 | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-01 | Novorizontino | Ponte Preta | Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2024-06-15 | Ponte Preta | Novorizontino | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-03 | Ponte Preta | Novorizontino | Paulista - A1 | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-28 | Novorizontino | Ponte Preta | Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2023-07-02 | Ponte Preta | Novorizontino | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2023-04-08 | Ponte Preta | Novorizontino | Paulista - A2 | 0-0 |
| 2023-04-05 | Novorizontino | Ponte Preta | Paulista - A2 | 1-1 |
| 2023-02-01 | Novorizontino | Ponte Preta | Paulista - A2 | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 89.0%, draw 7.7%, away 3.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.03 | 12.20 | 29.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.07 | 10.00 | 26.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.06 | 8.50 | 21.00 |
| Betano | 1.09 | 12.50 | 40.00 |
| Betfair | 1.05 | 13.00 | 31.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.07 | 12.00 | 30.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.03 | 12.25 | 29.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.06 | 16.14 | 29.03 |
| William Hill | 1.06 | 13.00 | 26.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.06 ▼ -0.04
X
12.25 ▲ +3.10
2
29.00 ▲ +10.00
10 snapshots recorded, from .