Novorizontino
vs
Ponte Preta
Garuda Lions Prediction: Novorizontino
3 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
| Probability | Novorizontino | Draw | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 92.7% | 6.2% | 1.0% |
| Market | 87.7% | 8.4% | 3.9% |
| Final | 88.9% | 7.9% | 3.2% |
| Edge | +5.1% | -2.2% | -2.8% |
Why Novorizontino
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.36 vs 0.28.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Novorizontino below the model: +5.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.08, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta match preview
Novorizontino is heavily favored in their upcoming match against Ponte Preta, with a 92% probability of winning according to the model. The expected goals for Novorizontino stands at 3.33, while Ponte Preta is projected to score only 0.34. Recent form also reflects a significant disparity; Novorizontino has recorded two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Ponte Preta has struggled with six consecutive games, resulting in just one win.
The most likely scoreline is projected to be 3-0 in favor of Novorizontino, with a 16% probability. Additionally, there is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, while the likelihood of both teams scoring is only 28%. In their last encounter, Novorizontino emerged victorious, adding to their confidence heading into this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Novorizontino and Ponte Preta expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.64
Novorizontino and Ponte Preta attack and defence ratings
Novorizontino
Ponte Preta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novorizontino | 88.9% | 1.12 | +5.1% | 1.08 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 96.8% | 1.03 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Novorizontino win | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novorizontino | 88.9% |
| Draw | 7.9% | |
| Ponte Preta | 3.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 23.7% |
| No | 76.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 96.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 92.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 11.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Novorizontino win | 79.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.4% | |
| Loss | 7.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 16.6% |
| 2-0 | 14.9% | |
| 4-0 | 14.0% |
Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta stats
Novorizontino and Ponte Preta recent form
| Novorizontino |
WWDLDW |
| Ponte Preta |
LLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Novorizontino and Ponte Preta season so far
Novorizontino record
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ponte Preta record
- They have won 3 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Ponte Preta | Novorizontino | Brazil Serie B | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 87.7%, draw 8.4%, away 3.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.05 | 11.00 | 24.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.06 | 12.00 | 29.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.06 | 8.50 | 20.00 |
| Betano | 1.08 | 9.00 | 30.00 |
| Betfair | 1.06 | 11.00 | 31.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.06 | 13.00 | 30.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.05 | 11.00 | 24.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.06 | 13.87 | 23.06 |
| William Hill | 1.08 | 12.00 | 21.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .