Criciuma
vs
America Mineiro
Garuda Lions Prediction: Criciuma
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
Criciuma vs America Mineiro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Criciuma vs America Mineiro
| Probability | Criciuma | Draw | America Mineiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.9% | 28.8% | 13.3% |
| Market | 69.3% | 20.5% | 10.2% |
| Final | 66.4% | 22.6% | 11.0% |
| Edge | -11.4% | +8.3% | +3.1% |
Why Criciuma
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.57.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Criciuma vs America Mineiro match preview
Criciuma enters this matchup with a strong probability of winning at 62%, reflecting their recent form of two wins in their last three matches. In contrast, America Mineiro has struggled, losing four of their last six games, which contributes to their lower win probability of 12%. The expected goals suggest a significant advantage for Criciuma, with a projection of 1.70 compared to America Mineiro's 0.63.
Historically, Criciuma has performed well against America Mineiro, winning two of their last three encounters and drawing once. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Criciuma, with a 16% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% probability that both teams will score in this match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Criciuma and America Mineiro expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.03
Criciuma and America Mineiro attack and defence ratings
Criciuma
America Mineiro
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Criciuma vs America Mineiro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Criciuma | 66.4% | 1.51 | -11.4% | 1.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.9% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.0% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.1% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Criciuma | 66.4% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| America Mineiro | 11.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.4% |
| No | 65.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Criciuma win | 30.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.3% | |
| Loss | 42.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.1% |
| 0-0 | 14.3% | |
| 2-0 | 14.0% |
Criciuma vs America Mineiro stats
Criciuma and America Mineiro recent form
| Criciuma |
LWWLLL |
| America Mineiro |
LLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Criciuma and America Mineiro season so far
Criciuma record
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
America Mineiro record
- They have won 4 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Criciuma vs America Mineiro head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | America Mineiro | Criciuma | Brazil Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-12 | Criciuma | America Mineiro | Brazil Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-21 | America Mineiro | Criciuma | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Criciuma vs America Mineiro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 69.3%, draw 20.5%, away 10.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.33 | 4.55 | 9.25 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 4.10 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 4.20 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.38 | 4.35 | 8.75 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 4.50 | 9.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.41 | 4.60 | 8.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.32 | 4.55 | 9.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.31 | 4.84 | 10.53 |
| William Hill | 1.33 | 4.40 | 9.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .