Athletic Club
vs
Londrina
Garuda Lions Prediction: Athletic Club
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Athletic Club vs Londrina overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Athletic Club vs Londrina
| Probability | Athletic Club | Draw | Londrina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.2% | 23.5% | 21.3% |
| Market | 44.2% | 29.0% | 26.9% |
| Final | 46.9% | 27.6% | 25.5% |
| Edge | +11.0% | -5.4% | -5.6% |
Why Athletic Club
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.18.
- The market prices Athletic Club below the model: +11.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Athletic Club vs Londrina match preview
Athletic Club is set to face Londrina in the Brazil Serie B on October 13, 2026. The model suggests a 53% probability of an Athletic Club victory, while Londrina has a 23% chance of winning, and a draw stands at 24%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Athletic Club, with a 10% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Athletic Club has recorded two losses, two draws, and one win in their last six matches, while Londrina has a slightly better record with two wins and four losses. The expected goals for Athletic Club is 1.91 compared to Londrina's 1.19. Historically, in their last encounter, Londrina secured a win against Athletic Club, who has yet to register a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Athletic Club and Londrina expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.18
Athletic Club and Londrina attack and defence ratings
Athletic Club
Londrina
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Athletic Club vs Londrina markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 46.9% | 2.13 | +11.0% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.8% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 46.9% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Londrina | 25.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% |
| No | 39.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Athletic Club win | 33.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 44.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.3% |
Athletic Club vs Londrina stats
Athletic Club and Londrina recent form
| Athletic Club |
LLDDWL |
| Londrina |
LLLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Athletic Club and Londrina season so far
Athletic Club record
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Londrina record
- They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Athletic Club vs Londrina head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Londrina | Athletic Club | Brazil Serie B | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Athletic Club vs Londrina odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.2%, draw 29.0%, away 26.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.44 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.08 | 3.20 | 3.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.15 | 3.34 | 3.44 |
| SBO | 2.04 | 2.94 | 3.14 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .