Atletico Goianiense
vs
Sport Recife
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Goianiense
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife
| Probability | Atletico Goianiense | Draw | Sport Recife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.0% | 25.2% | 19.7% |
| Market | 53.9% | 25.8% | 20.3% |
| Final | 54.2% | 25.7% | 20.1% |
| Edge | +1.1% | -0.6% | -0.5% |
Why Atletico Goianiense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.00.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife match preview
Atletico Goianiense faces Sport Recife in a Brazil Serie B clash, with Atletico Goianiense holding a 54% probability of winning, while a draw is at 26% and Sport Recife at 20%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, with expected goals of 1.80 for Atletico Goianiense and 1.00 for Sport Recife. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 53%, and both teams scoring is projected at 54%.
In terms of recent form, Atletico Goianiense has recorded results of L-W-W-L-W-W, while Sport Recife has a sequence of W-W-L-W-L-W. The head-to-head record shows one draw and no wins for either team in their last encounter. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.80
Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife attack and defence ratings
Atletico Goianiense
Sport Recife
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Goianiense | 54.2% | 1.85 | +1.1% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.0% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Goianiense | 54.2% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Sport Recife | 20.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% |
| No | 46.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Goianiense win | 31.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 45.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.8% |
Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife stats
Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife recent form
| Atletico Goianiense |
LWWLWW |
| Sport Recife |
WWLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife season so far
Atletico Goianiense record
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sport Recife record
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | Sport Recife | Atletico Goianiense | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.9%, draw 25.8%, away 20.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.74 | 3.54 | 4.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.72 | 3.54 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.70 | 3.73 | 4.86 |
| SBO | 1.64 | 3.35 | 4.13 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .