Ponte Preta
vs
Atletico Goianiense
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Goianiense
0 – 2 Predicted score · 17% model probability
Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense
| Probability | Ponte Preta | Draw | Atletico Goianiense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6.1% | 19.1% | 74.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 6.1% | 19.1% | 74.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Atletico Goianiense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 0.45.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense match preview
Ponte Preta faces Atletico Goianiense in a Brazil Serie B match on October 16, 2026. Ponte Preta has struggled recently, with a form record of L-L-L-W-L-L, while Atletico Goianiense shows a stronger trend, having won three of their last six matches (L-W-W-L-W-W). According to our model, Ponte Preta has a 6% chance of winning, a 19% chance of a draw, and a 75% chance for Atletico Goianiense to secure the victory.
The expected goals for this matchup indicate a significant disparity, with Ponte Preta projected at 0.45 and Atletico Goianiense at 2.06. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, occurring at a rate of 17%. Additionally, there is a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match, while both teams scoring is estimated at 32%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ponte Preta and Atletico Goianiense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.51
Ponte Preta and Atletico Goianiense attack and defence ratings
Ponte Preta
Atletico Goianiense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Goianiense | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 93.9% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Goianiense win | 49.8% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ponte Preta | 6.1% |
| Draw | 19.1% | |
| Atletico Goianiense | 74.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.3% |
| No | 67.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 25.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 93.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Goianiense win | 49.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.0% | |
| Loss | 25.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 17.3% |
| 0-1 | 16.0% | |
| 0-3 | 11.9% |
Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense stats
Ponte Preta and Atletico Goianiense recent form
| Ponte Preta |
LLLWLL |
| Atletico Goianiense |
LWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ponte Preta and Atletico Goianiense season so far
Ponte Preta record
- They have won 3 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Atletico Goianiense record
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Atletico Goianiense | Ponte Preta | Brazil Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Atletico Goianiense | Ponte Preta | Copa Do Brasil | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.