São Bernardo
vs
Criciuma
Garuda Lions Prediction: São Bernardo
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
São Bernardo vs Criciuma overview
Garuda Lions analysis: São Bernardo vs Criciuma
| Probability | São Bernardo | Draw | Criciuma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.5% | 28.8% | 19.7% |
| Market | 31.2% | 31.1% | 37.7% |
| Final | 36.3% | 30.5% | 33.2% |
| Edge | +20.2% | -2.3% | -18.0% |
Why São Bernardo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.83.
- The market prices São Bernardo below the model: +20.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 3.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
São Bernardo vs Criciuma match preview
São Bernardo hosts Criciuma in a Brazil Serie B clash, with the home side holding a 54% probability of winning according to our model. Recent form shows São Bernardo with two wins in their last five matches, while Criciuma has struggled, losing four of their last five. The expected goals suggest a strong performance from São Bernardo at 1.61 compared to Criciuma's 0.84.
The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of São Bernardo, occurring with a 13% likelihood. Both teams have a nearly equal chance of scoring, with 47% probability for both teams to find the net. The confidence grade for this match is rated as C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
São Bernardo and Criciuma expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.31
São Bernardo and Criciuma attack and defence ratings
São Bernardo
Criciuma
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
São Bernardo vs Criciuma markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | São Bernardo | 36.3% | 2.76 | +20.2% | 3.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | São Bernardo | 36.3% |
| Draw | 30.5% | |
| Criciuma | 33.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.8% |
| No | 55.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | São Bernardo win | 26.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 48.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.5% |
| 1-1 | 13.4% | |
| 0-0 | 11.1% |
São Bernardo vs Criciuma stats
São Bernardo and Criciuma recent form
| São Bernardo |
DLWDWW |
| Criciuma |
WLWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
São Bernardo and Criciuma season so far
São Bernardo record
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Criciuma record
- They have won 16 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
São Bernardo vs Criciuma head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | Criciuma | São Bernardo | Brazil Serie B | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
São Bernardo vs Criciuma odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.3%, draw 31.0%, away 37.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.98 | 2.96 | 2.46 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.00 | 2.47 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.15 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.95 | 2.96 | 2.44 |
| Pinnacle | 3.10 | 3.02 | 2.49 |
| SBO | 2.68 | 2.83 | 2.35 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 2.88 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .