Vila Nova
vs
Novorizontino
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vila Nova
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Vila Nova vs Novorizontino overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vila Nova vs Novorizontino
| Probability | Vila Nova | Draw | Novorizontino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.2% | 33.3% | 31.5% |
| Market | 34.5% | 30.2% | 35.3% |
| Final | 34.7% | 31.0% | 34.3% |
| Edge | +0.7% | +3.1% | -3.8% |
Why Vila Nova
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Vila Nova vs Novorizontino match preview
Vila Nova faces Novorizontino in a Brazil Serie B matchup with Vila Nova holding a 38% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 35% and Novorizontino at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Vila Nova, occurring at a rate of 15%. Expected goals indicate Vila Nova at 1.01 and Novorizontino at 0.81, suggesting a tighter contest.
In terms of recent form, Vila Nova has recorded a sequence of W-D-W-W-W-D, while Novorizontino's form shows W-W-D-L-D-W. Historically, in their last three encounters, Vila Nova has not secured a victory, with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 wins for Novorizontino. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vila Nova and Novorizontino expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.02
Vila Nova and Novorizontino attack and defence ratings
Vila Nova
Novorizontino
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vila Nova vs Novorizontino markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vila Nova | 34.7% | 2.88 | +0.7% | 2.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vila Nova | 34.7% |
| Draw | 31.0% | |
| Novorizontino | 34.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.8% |
| No | 58.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vila Nova win | 14.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 64.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.9% |
| 0-0 | 14.6% | |
| 1-0 | 12.5% |
Vila Nova vs Novorizontino stats
Vila Nova and Novorizontino recent form
| Vila Nova |
WDWWWD |
| Novorizontino |
WWWDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vila Nova and Novorizontino season so far
Vila Nova record
- They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Novorizontino record
- They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vila Nova vs Novorizontino head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Novorizontino | Vila Nova | Brazil Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Novorizontino | Vila Nova | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-30 | Vila Nova | Novorizontino | Brazil Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2024-08-31 | Novorizontino | Vila Nova | Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2024-05-14 | Vila Nova | Novorizontino | Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2023-07-30 | Novorizontino | Vila Nova | Serie B | 3-1 |
| 2023-04-15 | Vila Nova | Novorizontino | Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2022-07-30 | Novorizontino | Vila Nova | Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2022-04-12 | Vila Nova | Novorizontino | Serie B | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vila Nova vs Novorizontino odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.6%, draw 29.9%, away 35.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.68 | 3.02 | 2.62 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.10 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.60 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.30 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.68 | 3.02 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.75 | 3.12 | 2.70 |
| SBO | 2.53 | 2.92 | 2.43 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .