Atletico Goianiense
vs
Novorizontino
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Goianiense
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Atletico Goianiense is the favourite, not a value bet.
Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino
| Probability | Atletico Goianiense | Draw | Novorizontino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.2% | 28.1% | 40.8% |
| Market | 37.8% | 28.8% | 33.4% |
| Final | 36.2% | 28.6% | 35.2% |
| Edge | -1.7% | -0.2% | +1.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.56, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.4% per unit staked (our 36.2% × 2.56 − 1).
Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino match preview
Atletico Goianiense faces Novorizontino in a Brazil Serie B clash, with the probabilities indicating a 40% chance of a home win for Atletico, a 28% likelihood of a draw, and a 32% chance for an away victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Atletico Goianiense, with an 8% probability. The expected goals are 1.25 for Atletico and 1.46 for Novorizontino, suggesting a competitive match.
In recent form, Atletico Goianiense has recorded two draws, one loss, two wins, while Novorizontino has achieved two wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. The head-to-head record shows a balanced contest with each team having one win and one draw in their last three encounters. The model indicates a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Goianiense and Novorizontino expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.70
Atletico Goianiense and Novorizontino attack and defence ratings
Atletico Goianiense
Novorizontino
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Goianiense | 36.2% | 2.76 | -1.7% | 2.56 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Goianiense | 36.2% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Novorizontino | 35.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% |
| No | 44.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Goianiense win | 13.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.4% | |
| Loss | 68.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 0-1 | 8.5% |
Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino stats
Atletico Goianiense and Novorizontino recent form
| Atletico Goianiense |
DDLWWL |
| Novorizontino |
DWWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Goianiense and Novorizontino season so far
Atletico Goianiense record
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Novorizontino record
- They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Novorizontino | Atletico Goianiense | Brazil Serie B | 3-0 |
| 2025-09-08 | Novorizontino | Atletico Goianiense | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-04 | Atletico Goianiense | Novorizontino | Brazil Serie B | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.8%, draw 28.7%, away 33.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.40 | 3.24 | 2.83 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 3.24 | 2.80 |
| Pinnacle | 2.56 | 3.25 | 2.81 |
| SBO | 2.40 | 3.01 | 2.49 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .