Avai
vs
Botafogo SP
Garuda Lions Prediction: Avai
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Avai is the favourite, not a value bet.
Avai vs Botafogo SP overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Avai vs Botafogo SP
| Probability | Avai | Draw | Botafogo SP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.0% | 36.1% | 29.9% |
| Market | 40.6% | 30.5% | 28.9% |
| Final | 38.9% | 31.9% | 29.2% |
| Edge | -1.6% | +1.4% | +0.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.9% per unit staked (our 38.9% × 2.34 − 1).
Avai vs Botafogo SP match preview
Avai faces Botafogo SP in a Brazil Serie B matchup, with Avai holding a 38% probability of winning according to our model, while Botafogo SP has a 29% chance. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Avai, with an expected goals tally of 1.15 for Avai and 0.97 for Botafogo SP. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 36%, and both teams scoring is forecasted at 44%.
In terms of recent form, Avai has recorded two wins, followed by three losses and a draw, while Botafogo SP has two wins, one loss, one draw, and one additional loss in their last six matches. The head-to-head record in the last three encounters shows Avai with one win, one draw, and Botafogo SP also with one win, indicating a competitive matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Avai and Botafogo SP expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.75
Avai and Botafogo SP attack and defence ratings
Avai
Botafogo SP
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Avai vs Botafogo SP markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avai | 38.9% | 2.57 | -1.6% | 2.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avai | 38.9% |
| Draw | 31.9% | |
| Botafogo SP | 29.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 25.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 74.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.2% |
| No | 64.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Avai win | 12.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 66.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 18.8% |
| 1-1 | 14.6% | |
| 1-0 | 14.6% |
Avai vs Botafogo SP stats
Avai and Botafogo SP recent form
| Avai |
DWWLLL |
| Botafogo SP |
WWWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Avai and Botafogo SP season so far
Avai record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botafogo SP record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Avai vs Botafogo SP head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Botafogo SP | Avai | Brazil Serie B | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Botafogo SP | Avai | Brazil Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2025-07-28 | Avai | Botafogo SP | Brazil Serie B | 5-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Avai vs Botafogo SP odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.4%, draw 30.5%, away 29.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.06 | 3.16 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.05 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.34 | 3.15 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.27 | 3.06 | 3.14 |
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 3.14 | 3.30 |
| SBO | 2.21 | 2.83 | 2.90 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 2.90 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .