Botafogo SP
vs
Ceara
Garuda Lions Prediction: Botafogo SP
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Botafogo SP vs Ceara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Botafogo SP vs Ceara
| Probability | Botafogo SP | Draw | Ceara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.5% | 29.9% | 34.7% |
| Market | 42.3% | 29.7% | 27.9% |
| Final | 40.6% | 29.8% | 29.6% |
| Edge | -6.8% | +0.1% | +6.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Botafogo SP vs Ceara match preview
Botafogo SP faces Ceara in an upcoming Brazil Serie B match, with our model assigning a 40% probability of a home win, while Ceara has a 30% chance of victory and a 29% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Botafogo SP, with an expected goals tally of 1.34 for Botafogo SP and 1.22 for Ceara.
In terms of recent form, Botafogo SP has recorded a mixed sequence of results with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Ceara has shown more consistency, with three wins and three draws in their last six encounters. Additionally, our model indicates a 53% chance that both teams will score and a 47% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Botafogo SP and Ceara expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.45
Botafogo SP and Ceara attack and defence ratings
Botafogo SP
Ceara
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Botafogo SP vs Ceara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo SP | 40.6% | 2.46 | -6.8% | 2.27 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botafogo SP | 40.6% |
| Draw | 29.8% | |
| Ceara | 29.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% |
| No | 48.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Botafogo SP win | 15.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 64.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-0 | 9.9% | |
| 1-0 | 9.3% |
Botafogo SP vs Ceara stats
Botafogo SP and Ceara recent form
| Botafogo SP |
WLWDLL |
| Ceara |
WWDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Botafogo SP and Ceara season so far
Botafogo SP record
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ceara record
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botafogo SP vs Ceara head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Ceara | Botafogo SP | Brazil Serie B | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Botafogo SP vs Ceara odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.3%, draw 29.7%, away 27.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.17 | 3.08 | 3.40 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 2.15 | 3.08 | 3.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 3.33 | 3.38 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .