Ceara
vs
Criciuma
1 – 0 Full time
| 44′ | Marcelo Hermes | ||
| 48′ | Rodrigo Fagundes | ||
| 54′ | Rómulo OteroRomarinho | ||
| 63′ | Enzo LodovicoRian Santana | ||
| 63′ | Renzo LópezLenny Ivo Lobato Romanelli | ||
| 67′ | Ronald | ||
| 68′ | Yuri JonathanCaue | ||
| 69′ | Fellipe MateusWillean Bernardo | ||
| 75′ | RonaldEduardo Biasi | ||
| 75′ | Jhonata Robert Alves da SilvaJoão Carlos Barros Lopes | ||
| 78′ | Vinícius | ||
| 78′ | ViníciusLucca Holanda Sampaio Tavares | ||
| 78′ | Julio CesarRafael Ramos | ||
| 84′ | Matheus AraujoLucas Mugni | ||
| 88′ | Lenny Ivo Lobato Romanelli |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 56 | Possession % | 44 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 2 |
| 383 | Accurate passes | 381 |
Ceara vs Criciuma overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ceara vs Criciuma
| Probability | Ceara | Draw | Criciuma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.2% | 28.4% | 23.3% |
| Market | 37.9% | 29.6% | 32.5% |
| Final | 40.5% | 29.3% | 30.2% |
| Edge | +10.3% | -1.1% | -9.2% |
Why Ceara
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.98.
- The market prices Ceara below the model: +10.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ceara and Criciuma expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.48
Ceara and Criciuma attack and defence ratings
Ceara
Criciuma
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ceara vs Criciuma: result vs prediction
Ceara 1 – 0 Criciuma
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ceara vs Criciuma markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ceara | 40.5% | 2.47 | +10.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ceara | 40.5% |
| Draw | 29.3% | |
| Criciuma | 30.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.7% |
| No | 50.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ceara win | 25.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 51.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% | |
| 0-0 | 9.6% |
Ceara vs Criciuma stats
Ceara and Criciuma recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ceara and Criciuma going into this match
Ceara record
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Criciuma record
- They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
Ceara vs Criciuma head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Criciuma | Ceara | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2023-09-02 | Ceara | Criciuma | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2023-05-21 | Criciuma | Ceara | Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2017-11-18 | Criciuma | Ceara | Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2017-08-02 | Ceara | Criciuma | Serie B | 3-1 |
| 2016-11-08 | Criciuma | Ceara | Serie B | 2-3 |
| 2016-07-16 | Ceara | Criciuma | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2015-10-17 | Criciuma | Ceara | Serie B | 3-0 |
| 2015-07-10 | Ceara | Criciuma | Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2012-10-06 | Criciuma | Ceara | Serie B | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ceara vs Criciuma odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.9%, draw 29.6%, away 32.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.40 | 3.14 | 2.92 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.50 | 3.15 | 2.82 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.25 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 3.14 | 2.89 |
| Pinnacle | 2.61 | 3.18 | 2.94 |
| SBO | 2.27 | 2.85 | 2.78 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .