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Brazil Serie B · Full time ·Matchday 32

America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC

0 – 1 Full time

3′Lucas Sasha
9′Fábio das Neves Gerônimo de AlmeidaFilipe Pereira Dahora
22′Pierre
41′Rafael Raul Barcelos
45′Otavio Goncalves
45′Guilherme ParedeLuidy Montes Carneiro
48′Lucas Xavier Gazal
57′Rodrigo Henrique Santos De SouzaLucas Crispim
58′Vitor FerreiraRodrigo Oliveira dos Santos
70′Otavio GoncalvesFelipe
71′Luiz FernandoJuan Camilo Cantillo
71′Nathan FogaçaPedro Henrique
85′Matías SegoviaMarcelo Enrique Maçola Filho
85′Paulo Victor·Ferreira de JesusJulio César Leme Do Nascimento
87′Maurício MucuriKaio Henrique
89′Luidy Montes Carneiro

Arena Independência, Bello HarisantaReferee: Rafael Rodrigo Klein

America Mineiro 23%
Draw 28%
Fortaleza EC 50%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 13
1 Shots on target 2
52 Possession % 48
3 Corners 5
22 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 0
1 Saves 1
439 Accurate passes 416

America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAmerica MineiroDrawFortaleza EC
Model18.8%29.9%51.4%
Market23.7%27.2%49.0%
Final22.5%27.9%49.6%
Edge-5.0%+2.6%+2.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Fortaleza EC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.75.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Fortaleza EC below the model: +2.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

America Mineir ↓ / Fortaleza EC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 15% 11% 1 13% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 65%
3+ goals 36%
No goals 13%

America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC expected goals

America Mineiro 0.75
Fortaleza EC 1.40

Total expected goals: 2.15

America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC attack and defence ratings

America Mineiro

Attack 0.65 -35%
Defence 1.35 +35%

Fortaleza EC

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC: result vs prediction

America Mineiro 0 – 1 Fortaleza EC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 32 fixtures

Brazil Serie B

Before and after this match

America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Fortaleza EC 49.6% 2.02 +2.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 63.5% 1.57 — —
Both teams to score No 59.0% 1.70 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 77.5% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.6% 2.06 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2America Mineiro22.5%
Draw27.9%
Fortaleza EC49.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536.5%
Under 2.563.5%
Both teams to scoreYes41.0%
No59.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)50.4%
12 (either side)72.1%
X2 (draw or away)77.5%
Handicap -1Fortaleza EC win26.1%
Push (exactly one goal)25.3%
Loss48.6%
Correct score (top 3)0-115.1%
1-113.4%
0-012.8%

America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC stats

America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC recent form

newest first
America Mineiro LLLLWL
Fortaleza EC DDWDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

America Mineiro and Fortaleza EC going into this match

league record before kick-off

America Mineiro record

  • They have won 4 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Fortaleza EC record

  • They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).

America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3America Mineiro wins 0Draws 7Fortaleza EC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-16Fortaleza ECAmerica MineiroBrazil Serie B0-3
2023-10-08Fortaleza ECAmerica MineiroSerie A3-2
2023-08-31Fortaleza ECAmerica MineiroCONMEBOL Sudamericana2-1
2023-08-24America MineiroFortaleza ECCONMEBOL Sudamericana1-3
2023-05-20America MineiroFortaleza ECSerie A2-1
2022-10-15America MineiroFortaleza ECSerie A1-2
2022-06-19Fortaleza ECAmerica MineiroSerie A1-0
2021-10-31America MineiroFortaleza ECSerie A2-1
2021-07-07Fortaleza ECAmerica MineiroSerie A4-0
2016-07-29Fortaleza ECAmerica MineiroCopa Do Brasil4-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

America Mineiro vs Fortaleza EC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 23.7%, draw 27.2%, away 49.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.96 3.46 1.86
Bet365 4.10 3.40 1.90
BetVictor 3.80 3.30 1.83
Betano 3.85 3.35 1.95
Betfair 3.90 3.50 1.90
Marathonbet 3.94 3.46 1.84
Pinnacle 4.11 3.61 1.93
SBO 3.60 3.11 1.89
William Hill 3.80 3.30 1.85

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.90 ▲ +0.48
X 3.40 ▲ +0.10
2 1.89 ▼ -0.16

10 snapshots recorded, from .