Ceara
vs
Goias
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ceara
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.89.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ceara is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ceara vs Goias overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ceara vs Goias
| Probability | Ceara | Draw | Goias |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.5% | 31.1% | 24.5% |
| Market | 44.9% | 28.7% | 26.4% |
| Final | 44.8% | 29.3% | 25.9% |
| Edge | -0.1% | +0.6% | -0.5% |
Why Ceara
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.89.
Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.0% per unit staked (our 44.8% × 2.10 − 1).
Ceara vs Goias match preview
Ceara and Goias are set to face off in a Brazil Serie B match on October 27, 2026. Ceara holds a 44% probability of winning, while Goias has a 25% chance, with a 31% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Ceara, occurring with a 13% probability. The expected goals for Ceara stand at 1.29, compared to Goias' 0.90, indicating a stronger attacking performance from Ceara.
In terms of recent form, Ceara has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Goias has achieved three wins, two losses, and one draw. The head-to-head record shows that in their last encounter, Ceara has not secured a win, with Goias claiming victory. The model suggests a 44% chance for both teams to score and a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ceara and Goias expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.19
Ceara and Goias attack and defence ratings
Ceara
Goias
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ceara vs Goias markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ceara | 44.8% | 2.23 | -0.1% | 2.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ceara | 44.8% |
| Draw | 29.3% | |
| Goias | 25.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.2% |
| No | 55.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ceara win | 21.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 55.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 13.2% | |
| 0-0 | 12.5% |
Ceara vs Goias stats
Ceara and Goias recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ceara and Goias season so far
Ceara record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Goias record
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ceara vs Goias head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Goias | Ceara | Brazil Serie B | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ceara vs Goias odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.9%, draw 28.7%, away 26.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.07 | 3.22 | 3.50 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.09 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.05 | 3.22 | 3.48 |
| Pinnacle | 2.06 | 3.26 | 3.78 |
| SBO | 2.02 | 2.95 | 3.17 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .