Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 29
Vila Nova
vs
America Mineiro
1 – 0 Full time
| 14′ | André Luís | ||
| 32′ | Guilherme ParedeMatías Segovia | ||
| 62′ | Higor Luiz de Souza | ||
| 63′ | Marquinhos GabrielRaphael Guimarães de Paula | ||
| 63′ | Everton GaldinoRyan lima | ||
| 63′ | Julio César Leme Do NascimentoMarcelo Enrique Maçola Filho | ||
| 63′ | FelipeJorge Jiménez | ||
| 79′ | Higor Luiz de SouzaIgor Cariús | ||
| 79′ | João Pedro VieiraWillian Maranhão | ||
| 82′ | Paulo Victor·Ferreira de Jesus | ||
| 86′ | Tobias OstchegaFernando Elizari | ||
| 86′ | Otavio GoncalvesLuidy Montes Carneiro | ||
| 86′ | André LuísWillian Prado Camargo | ||
| 88′ | Raphael Guimarães de Paula | ||
| 90′ | Willian Prado Camargo | ||
| 90′ | Willian |
Vila Nova
66%
Draw
22%
America Mineiro
11%
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 20 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 41 | Possession % | 59 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Offsides | 4 |
| 5 | Saves | 1 |
| 258 | Accurate passes | 407 |
Vila Nova vs America Mineiro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vila Nova vs America Mineiro
| Probability | Vila Nova | Draw | America Mineiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.6% | 20.2% | 11.2% |
| Market | 65.6% | 22.8% | 11.6% |
| Final | 66.4% | 22.2% | 11.5% |
| Edge | +3.0% | -2.6% | -0.4% |
Why Vila Nova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Vila Nova below the model: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
80%
3+ goals
57%
No goals
6%
Vila Nova and America Mineiro expected goals
Vila Nova
2.19
America Mineiro
0.78
Total expected goals: 2.97
Vila Nova and America Mineiro attack and defence ratings
Vila Nova
Attack
1.20 +20%
Defence
1.02 +2%
America Mineiro
Attack
0.80 -20%
Defence
1.40 +40%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Vila Nova vs America Mineiro: result vs prediction
Vila Nova 1 – 0 America Mineiro
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vila Nova vs America Mineiro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vila Nova | 66.4% | 1.51 | +3.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.5% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Vila Nova win | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vila Nova | 66.4% |
| Draw | 22.2% | |
| America Mineiro | 11.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.1% |
| No | 50.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vila Nova win | 45.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 31.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.3% |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | |
| 1-1 | 9.7% |
Vila Nova vs America Mineiro stats
Vila Nova and America Mineiro recent form
| Vila Nova |
DWLWDW |
| America Mineiro |
LWLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vila Nova and America Mineiro going into this match
Vila Nova record
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
America Mineiro record
- They have won 4 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 28 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vila Nova vs America Mineiro head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Vila Nova wins
2Draws
5America Mineiro wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | America Mineiro | Vila Nova | Brazil Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-09 | America Mineiro | Vila Nova | Brazil Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2025-06-13 | Vila Nova | America Mineiro | Brazil Serie B | 0-3 |
| 2024-08-25 | Vila Nova | America Mineiro | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-09 | America Mineiro | Vila Nova | Serie B | 3-1 |
| 2019-10-15 | America Mineiro | Vila Nova | Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2019-07-20 | Vila Nova | America Mineiro | Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2017-09-19 | America Mineiro | Vila Nova | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2017-06-09 | Vila Nova | America Mineiro | Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2014-09-20 | Vila Nova | America Mineiro | Serie B | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vila Nova vs America Mineiro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.6%, draw 22.8%, away 11.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.43 | 3.98 | 7.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.20 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 3.80 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.30 | 8.75 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.20 | 8.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.41 | 4.05 | 7.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.44 | 4.18 | 8.39 |
| SBO | 1.40 | 3.80 | 6.66 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 3.90 | 8.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.41 ▼ -0.12
X
4.05 ▲ +0.13
2
8.00 ▲ +2.05
8 snapshots recorded, from .