Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 29
Cuiaba
vs
Nautico Recife
3 – 0 Full time
| 33′ | Lorenzo Silva Martins | ||
| 45′ | AuremirPatricio Nunez\t | ||
| 45′ | ReginaldoLuan Sales | ||
| 45′ | Benjamín BorasiTodinho | ||
| 52′ | Kauan Cristtyan Cabral do Carmo | ||
| 61′ | Jean Dias da CostaEliel Chrystian | ||
| 62′ | David Miguel de Souza ArcanjoWesley Dias Claudino | ||
| 63′ | Kauan Cristtyan Cabral do Carmo | ||
| 67′ | Kauan Almeida da CostaDerek Freitas Ribeiro | ||
| 67′ | Jean CarlosDaniel Ferreira dos Santos Filho | ||
| 68′ | Todinho | ||
| 73′ | Kauan Cristtyan Cabral do CarmoRamon de Araujo Silva Moutinho | ||
| 73′ | Fabio GomesPedro Henrique | ||
| 80′ | Wanderson Camelo Viana | ||
| 85′ | IgorRodrigo Antonio Rodrigues |
Cuiaba
46%
Draw
29%
Nautico Recife
25%
Match stats
| 28 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 44 | Possession % | 56 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 4 |
| 306 | Accurate passes | 422 |
Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife
| Probability | Cuiaba | Draw | Nautico Recife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.6% | 27.6% | 21.8% |
| Market | 44.2% | 29.3% | 26.5% |
| Final | 45.8% | 28.9% | 25.3% |
| Edge | +6.4% | -1.7% | -4.7% |
Why Cuiaba
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.96.
- The market prices Cuiaba below the model: +6.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
73%
3+ goals
47%
No goals
9%
Cuiaba and Nautico Recife expected goals
Cuiaba
1.58
Nautico Recife
0.96
Total expected goals: 2.54
Cuiaba and Nautico Recife attack and defence ratings
Cuiaba
Attack
1.11 +11%
Defence
0.91 -9%
Nautico Recife
Attack
1.10 +10%
Defence
1.09 +9%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife: result vs prediction
Cuiaba 3 – 0 Nautico Recife
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cuiaba | 45.8% | 2.19 | +6.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.4% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cuiaba | 45.8% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Nautico Recife | 25.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% |
| No | 49.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cuiaba win | 27.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 49.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | |
| 2-0 | 9.8% |
Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife stats
Cuiaba and Nautico Recife recent form
| Cuiaba |
DWLWDW |
| Nautico Recife |
DLWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cuiaba and Nautico Recife going into this match
Cuiaba record
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nautico Recife record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
1Cuiaba wins
0Draws
4Nautico Recife wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Nautico Recife | Cuiaba | Brazil Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2020-12-23 | Nautico Recife | Cuiaba | Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2020-09-30 | Cuiaba | Nautico Recife | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2018-03-15 | Cuiaba | Nautico Recife | Copa Do Brasil | 0-1 |
| 2018-02-28 | Nautico Recife | Cuiaba | Copa Do Brasil | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.2%, draw 29.3%, away 26.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.09 | 3.16 | 3.50 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.20 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.07 | 3.15 | 3.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.16 | 3.30 | 3.59 |
| SBO | 2.21 | 2.87 | 3.04 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.10 ▲ +0.05
X
3.16 ▲ +0.06
2
3.50 ▼ -0.20
10 snapshots recorded, from .