Brazil Serie B · 2026-09-18T23:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 29

Ceara vs Novorizontino

2 – 1 Full time

9′			Julio Cesar Alves Goncalves
10′			Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas
45′			Enderson Alves Moreira
45′			Bryan Borges Mascarenhas
45′			Matheus Henrique Bianqui
45′			Nicolás FerreiraRian Bonfim De Santana
45′			Julio Cesar Alves GoncalvesMatheus Araujo
48′			Melquisedeque Costa De Oliveira
55′			João Gabriel Santos Batista
61′			Rian Bonfim De Santana
67′			Francisco Reidiney Duarte GomesJuninho
67′			Nicolas Morês da CruzDiego Galo
78′			Luís OyamaCarlos Henrique de Moura Brito
79′			Romulo Azevedo SimãoVinicius
80′			Enzo Valentim LodovicoRichardson
82′			Matheus Henrique Bianqui
87′			Matheus Henrique BianquiLuiz Otavio Maria
87′			João Gabriel Santos BatistaLucas Mugni
90′			Robson
90′			Melquisedeque Costa De OliveiraVinícius
90′			Richardson
90′			Juninho

Estadio Castelão, FortalezaReferee: Bruno Pereira Vasconcelos

Ceara

31%

Draw

28%

Novorizontino

41%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

8	Shots	24
3	Shots on target	9
46	Possession %	54
2	Corners	9
11	Fouls	13
4	Offsides	2
8	Saves	1
242	Accurate passes	302

Ceara vs Novorizontino overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Ceara vs Novorizontino

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Ceara	Draw	Novorizontino
Model	19.6%	25.3%	55.0%
Market	35.0%	29.3%	35.8%
Final	31.1%	28.3%	40.6%
Edge	-15.3%	-3.9%	+19.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Novorizontino

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.99.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices Novorizontino below the model: +19.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

93%

2+ goals

78%

3+ goals

53%

No goals

Ceara and Novorizontino expected goals

Ceara

0.99

Novorizontino

1.79

Total expected goals: 2.78

Ceara and Novorizontino attack and defence ratings

Ceara

Attack

0.95 -5%

Defence

1.18 +18%

Novorizontino

Attack

1.57 +57%

Defence

0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Ceara vs Novorizontino: result vs prediction

Ceara 2 – 1 Novorizontino

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Brazil Serie B

Vila Nova vs America Mineiro · 2026-09-18
São Bernardo vs Atletico Goianiense — team news & stats · 2026-09-19
Sport Recife vs Juventude · 2026-09-19
Athletic Club v Botafogo SP — match page · 2026-09-19
Ponte Preta vs CRB — team news & stats · 2026-09-20
Goias vs Avai · 2026-09-20
Londrina v Fortaleza EC — match page · 2026-09-20
Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife · 2026-09-22

Before and after this match

Ceara, previous: Fortaleza EC vs Ceara: odds and pick
Ceara, next: Operario-PR vs Ceara: odds and pick
Novorizontino, previous: Novorizontino vs Cuiaba prediction
Novorizontino, next: Novorizontino – São Bernardo, 2026-09-25

Ceara vs Novorizontino markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Novorizontino	40.6%	2.46	+19.2%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52.6%	1.90	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	53.5%	1.87	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	71.7%	1.39	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	45.0%	2.22	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Ceara	31.1%
	Draw	28.3%
	Novorizontino	40.6%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52.6%
	Under 2.5	47.4%
Both teams to score	Yes	53.5%
	No	46.5%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	59.4%
	12 (either side)	71.7%
	X2 (draw or away)	68.9%
Handicap -1	Novorizontino win	31.8%
	Push (exactly one goal)	23.2%
	Loss	45.0%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	12.1%
	0-1	10.0%
	0-2	9.9%

Ceara vs Novorizontino stats

Ceara and Novorizontino recent form

newest first

Ceara	DLWLWL
Novorizontino	DWWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Ceara and Novorizontino going into this match

league record before kick-off

Ceara record

They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
They have failed to score in 10 of 28 matches.
34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Novorizontino record

They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ceara vs Novorizontino head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

2Ceara wins 0Draws 3Novorizontino wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-05-23	Novorizontino	Ceara	Brazil Serie B	2-1
2024-08-27	Ceara	Novorizontino	Serie B	1-0
2024-05-10	Novorizontino	Ceara	Serie B	0-3
2023-09-19	Novorizontino	Ceara	Serie B	4-1
2023-05-28	Ceara	Novorizontino	Serie B	0-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Ceara vs Novorizontino odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.0%, draw 29.3%, away 35.8%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.63	3.14	2.58
Bet365	2.75	3.20	2.62
BetVictor	2.60	3.10	2.50
Betano	2.67	3.20	2.65
Betfair	2.63	3.25	2.55
Marathonbet	2.64	3.14	2.57
Pinnacle	2.72	3.29	2.69
SBO	2.50	3.00	2.53
William Hill	2.62	3.10	2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.63 ▼ -0.07

X 3.14 ▼ -0.13

2 2.57 ▲ +0.05

10 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-14T08:10:01Z.