Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 28
Novorizontino
vs
Cuiaba
1 – 1 Full time
| 20′ | Vitor Mendes | ||
| 36′ | Raul Lô Gonçalves | ||
| 37′ | Romulo Azevedo Simão | ||
| 57′ | Kauan Cristtyan Cabral do CarmoEliel Chrystian | ||
| 57′ | David Miguel de Souza ArcanjoLuiz Otavio | ||
| 60′ | Diego GaloMatheus Henrique Bianqui | ||
| 60′ | Leonardo Naldi de MatosJuninho | ||
| 69′ | Jean Dias da CostaRamon de Araujo Silva Moutinho | ||
| 75′ | Luis Henrique Fonseca SoaresWesley Dias Claudino | ||
| 75′ | Fabio GomesVinicius Peixoto | ||
| 79′ | Francisco Reidiney Duarte GomesRonald Barcellos Arantes | ||
| 88′ | Luiz Otavio | ||
| 90′ | RobsonCarlos Henrique de Moura Brito | ||
| 90′ | Romulo Azevedo SimãoLuiz Otavio Maria | ||
| 90′ | João Basso |
Novorizontino
57%
Draw
26%
Cuiaba
17%
Match stats
| 25 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 62 | Possession % | 38 |
| 10 | Corners | 7 |
| 6 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 5 |
| 396 | Accurate passes | 187 |
Novorizontino vs Cuiaba overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Novorizontino vs Cuiaba
| Probability | Novorizontino | Draw | Cuiaba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.9% | 23.6% | 15.6% |
| Market | 55.6% | 27.1% | 17.3% |
| Final | 56.9% | 26.2% | 16.9% |
| Edge | +5.3% | -3.6% | -1.7% |
Why Novorizontino
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Novorizontino below the model: +5.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
53%
No goals
7%
Novorizontino and Cuiaba expected goals
Novorizontino
1.93
Cuiaba
0.88
Total expected goals: 2.81
Novorizontino and Cuiaba attack and defence ratings
Novorizontino
Attack
1.67 +67%
Defence
0.81 -19%
Cuiaba
Attack
1.14 +14%
Defence
0.89 -11%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Novorizontino vs Cuiaba: result vs prediction
Novorizontino 1 – 1 Cuiaba
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Novorizontino vs Cuiaba markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novorizontino | 56.9% | 1.76 | +5.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.1% | 2.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Novorizontino | 56.9% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Cuiaba | 16.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% |
| No | 48.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Novorizontino win | 37.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 39.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-0 | 11.2% | |
| 1-0 | 10.6% |
Novorizontino vs Cuiaba stats
Novorizontino and Cuiaba recent form
| Novorizontino |
WWWWWD |
| Cuiaba |
WLWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Novorizontino and Cuiaba going into this match
Novorizontino record
- They have won 14 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cuiaba record
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Novorizontino vs Cuiaba head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
2Novorizontino wins
1Draws
0Cuiaba wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Cuiaba | Novorizontino | Brazil Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Cuiaba | Novorizontino | Brazil Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2025-06-15 | Novorizontino | Cuiaba | Brazil Serie B | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Novorizontino vs Cuiaba odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.8%, draw 27.3%, away 17.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.68 | 3.44 | 5.35 |
| 888Sport | 1.83 | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.40 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.30 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.65 | 5.90 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.50 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.83 | 3.30 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.66 | 3.44 | 5.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 3.62 | 5.66 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.21 | 4.69 |
| Unibet | 1.73 | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.30 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.68 ▼ -0.13
X
3.44 ▲ +0.19
2
5.40 ▲ +0.65
8 snapshots recorded, from .