Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 28
Fortaleza EC
vs
Ceara
1 – 1 Full time
| 20′ | Rodrigo Oliveira dos Santos | ||
| 20′ | Vinicius Zanocelo | ||
| 28′ | Pedro HenriquePaulo Baya | ||
| 30′ | Vitor Ferreira | ||
| 35′ | Pierre | ||
| 41′ | Vinicius ZanoceloVinícius | ||
| 61′ | Nicolás FerreiraRian Bonfim De Santana | ||
| 65′ | Vitor FerreiraChico da Costa | ||
| 68′ | Rian Bonfim De Santana | ||
| 76′ | Sanchez CostaSávio António Alves | ||
| 76′ | Julio Cesar Alves GoncalvesMatheus Araujo | ||
| 76′ | Saulo MineiroLucca Holanda Sampaio Tavares | ||
| 80′ | Pierreronald falkoski | ||
| 80′ | Luiz FernandoRyan Gustavo de Lima | ||
| 80′ | Kaio HenriqueMaurício Mucuri | ||
| 87′ | Melquisedeque Costa De Oliveira |
Fortaleza EC
51%
Draw
29%
Ceara
20%
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 48 | Possession % | 52 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 4 | Saves | 2 |
| 308 | Accurate passes | 325 |
Fortaleza EC vs Ceara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fortaleza EC vs Ceara
| Probability | Fortaleza EC | Draw | Ceara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.5% | 27.4% | 14.1% |
| Market | 49.0% | 29.4% | 21.6% |
| Final | 51.3% | 28.9% | 19.7% |
| Edge | +9.5% | -2.0% | -7.5% |
Why Fortaleza EC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Fortaleza EC below the model: +9.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
88%
2+ goals
66%
3+ goals
38%
No goals
12%
Fortaleza EC and Ceara expected goals
Fortaleza EC
1.57
Ceara
0.65
Total expected goals: 2.21
Fortaleza EC and Ceara attack and defence ratings
Fortaleza EC
Attack
0.99 -1%
Defence
0.71 -29%
Ceara
Attack
0.96 -4%
Defence
1.22 +22%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Fortaleza EC vs Ceara: result vs prediction
Fortaleza EC 1 – 1 Ceara
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fortaleza EC vs Ceara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza EC | 51.3% | 1.95 | +9.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.9% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza EC | 51.3% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Ceara | 19.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.8% |
| No | 61.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Fortaleza EC win | 32.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.3% | |
| Loss | 41.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.0% |
| 2-0 | 13.4% | |
| 1-1 | 12.2% |
Fortaleza EC vs Ceara stats
Fortaleza EC and Ceara recent form
| Fortaleza EC |
WWDWDD |
| Ceara |
LWLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fortaleza EC and Ceara going into this match
Fortaleza EC record
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ceara record
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fortaleza EC vs Ceara head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
0Fortaleza EC wins
5Draws
5Ceara wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Ceara | Fortaleza EC | Brazil Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Ceara | Fortaleza EC | Copa do Nordeste | 2-0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Ceara | Fortaleza EC | Cearense - 1 | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Fortaleza EC | Ceara | Cearense - 1 | 1-1 |
| 2026-02-08 | Ceara | Fortaleza EC | Cearense - 1 | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Ceara | Fortaleza EC | Brazil Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-13 | Fortaleza EC | Ceara | Brazil Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-22 | Ceara | Fortaleza EC | Cearense - 1 | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-15 | Fortaleza EC | Ceara | Cearense - 1 | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-08 | Fortaleza EC | Ceara | Cearense - 1 | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fortaleza EC vs Ceara odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.7%, draw 29.1%, away 21.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.88 | 3.18 | 4.40 |
| 888Sport | 1.75 | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.20 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.35 | 4.55 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.25 | 4.10 |
| Dafabet | 1.77 | 3.45 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.87 | 3.16 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.94 | 3.30 | 4.51 |
| SBO | 1.69 | 3.13 | 4.19 |
| Unibet | 1.73 | 3.55 | 4.75 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.91 ▲ +0.16
X
3.18 ▼ -0.22
2
4.33 ▼ -0.49
8 snapshots recorded, from .