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Brazil Serie B · Full time ·Matchday 27

Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino

1 – 3 Full time

12′Felipe Vieira Augusto
21′Romulo Azevedo Simão
30′Felipe Vieira Augusto
33′Maykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho
45′Leandro Maciel
47′Nicolas Morês da Cruz
47′Gabriel de Souza Inocencio
56′Robson
62′Nicolas Morês da CruzJuninho
62′Leonardo Naldi de MatosMatheus Henrique Bianqui
67′José Hugo Sousa dos SantosWesley Santos
67′Leandro MacielArthur Caíke
73′Matheus Henrique Bianqui
78′MorelliJadson Alves de Lima
78′Felipe Vieira AugustoJonathan
78′Kelvin Giacobe·Alves dos SantosMatheus Sales
84′Gabriel Henrique Feitosa da SilvaCarlinhos
84′Francisco Reidiney Duarte GomesDiego Galo
87′RobsonCarlos Henrique de Moura Brito
90′Rafael Gava

Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao PretoReferee: J. Pfleger

Botafogo SP 27%
Draw 29%
Novorizontino 44%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 9
1 Shots on target 5
54 Possession % 46
8 Corners 4
15 Fouls 17
5 Offsides 2
2 Saves 0
310 Accurate passes 255

Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBotafogo SPDrawNovorizontino
Model19.6%25.8%54.6%
Market30.1%30.1%39.9%
Final27.4%29.0%43.6%
Edge-10.5%-4.2%+14.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Novorizontino

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.96.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Novorizontino below the model: +14.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Botafogo SP ↓ / Novorizontino → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 11% 10% 1 12% 10% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Botafogo SP and Novorizontino expected goals

Botafogo SP 0.96
Novorizontino 1.74

Total expected goals: 2.71

Botafogo SP and Novorizontino attack and defence ratings

Botafogo SP

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Novorizontino

Attack 1.63 +63%
Defence 0.78 -22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino: result vs prediction

Botafogo SP 1 – 3 Novorizontino

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 27 fixtures

Brazil Serie B

Before and after this match

Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Novorizontino 43.6% 2.29 +14.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.8% 1.97 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.1% 1.92 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 72.6% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.4% 2.20 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Botafogo SP27.4%
Draw29.0%
Novorizontino43.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.8%
Under 2.549.2%
Both teams to scoreYes52.1%
No47.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)56.4%
12 (either side)71.0%
X2 (draw or away)72.6%
Handicap -1Novorizontino win31.2%
Push (exactly one goal)23.4%
Loss45.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.3%
0-110.5%
0-210.2%

Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino stats

Botafogo SP and Novorizontino recent form

newest first
Botafogo SP LLLDWW
Novorizontino WWWWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Botafogo SP and Novorizontino going into this match

league record before kick-off

Botafogo SP record

  • They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Novorizontino record

  • They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Botafogo SP wins 2Draws 5Novorizontino wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-10NovorizontinoBotafogo SPBrazil Serie B1-0
2026-01-25NovorizontinoBotafogo SPPaulista - A12-0
2025-10-24NovorizontinoBotafogo SPBrazil Serie B1-1
2025-07-06Botafogo SPNovorizontinoBrazil Serie B0-0
2025-02-23Botafogo SPNovorizontinoPaulista - A11-2
2024-09-14NovorizontinoBotafogo SPSerie B2-0
2024-05-28Botafogo SPNovorizontinoSerie B0-1
2023-10-21Botafogo SPNovorizontinoSerie B2-0
2023-06-28NovorizontinoBotafogo SPSerie B0-1
2022-03-13Botafogo SPNovorizontinoPaulista - A12-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 30.1%, draw 30.1%, away 39.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.10 3.10 2.36
1xBet 3.12 3.12 2.32
888Sport 3.00 3.00 2.30
Bet365 3.20 3.10 2.35
BetVictor 3.00 3.00 2.25
Betano 3.15 3.10 2.40
Betfair 3.10 3.10 2.30
Dafabet 3.15 3.15 2.42
Marathonbet 3.10 3.12 2.30
Pinnacle 3.24 3.20 2.40
SBO 2.91 2.99 2.21
Superbet 3.05 3.05 2.37
Unibet 3.05 2.90 2.45
William Hill 3.00 3.00 2.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.10 ▲ +0.40
X 3.10 ▲ +0.10
2 2.33 ▼ -0.37

8 snapshots recorded, from .