Brazil Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 27
America Mineiro
vs
Nautico Recife
2 – 1 Full time
| 16′ | Willian | ||
| 19′ | Luan Sales | ||
| 26′ | Tobias Ostchega | ||
| 28′ | Alberto Magno Santos de Melo FilhoRyan Santos | ||
| 45′ | Kauan Almeida da CostaBenjamín Borasi | ||
| 45′ | Luan SalesReginaldo | ||
| 45′ | Derek Freitas RibeiroTodinho | ||
| 56′ | SamuelLuiz Cláudio | ||
| 59′ | Muriel | ||
| 64′ | Otavio GoncalvesJorge Jiménez | ||
| 74′ | Paulo Victor·Ferreira de Jesus | ||
| 80′ | Julio César Leme Do NascimentoMatías Segovia | ||
| 80′ | Guilherme ParedeMarcelo Enrique Maçola Filho | ||
| 88′ | WillianRodrigo Pineiro | ||
| 88′ | BarretoFelipe | ||
| 89′ | Todinho | ||
| 90′ | Willian |
America Mineiro
33%
Draw
30%
Nautico Recife
37%
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 20 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 37 | Possession % | 63 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Saves | 4 |
| 246 | Accurate passes | 451 |
America Mineiro vs Nautico Recife overview
Garuda Lions analysis: America Mineiro vs Nautico Recife
| Probability | America Mineiro | Draw | Nautico Recife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.1% | 31.0% | 43.9% |
| Market | 35.6% | 29.3% | 35.1% |
| Final | 33.0% | 29.7% | 37.3% |
| Edge | -10.5% | +1.7% | +8.8% |
Why Nautico Recife
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Nautico Recife below the model: +8.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
88%
2+ goals
66%
3+ goals
38%
No goals
12%
America Mineiro and Nautico Recife expected goals
America Mineiro
0.92
Nautico Recife
1.29
Total expected goals: 2.21
America Mineiro and Nautico Recife attack and defence ratings
America Mineiro
Attack
0.83 -17%
Defence
1.42 +42%
Nautico Recife
Attack
0.95 -5%
Defence
0.86 -14%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
America Mineiro vs Nautico Recife: result vs prediction
America Mineiro 2 – 1 Nautico Recife
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
America Mineiro vs Nautico Recife markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nautico Recife | 37.3% | 2.68 | +8.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | America Mineiro | 33.0% |
| Draw | 29.7% | |
| Nautico Recife | 37.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.8% |
| No | 55.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nautico Recife win | 20.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 56.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-1 | 12.9% | |
| 0-0 | 12.3% |
America Mineiro vs Nautico Recife stats
America Mineiro and Nautico Recife recent form
| America Mineiro |
LWLLLL |
| Nautico Recife |
WWDWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
America Mineiro and Nautico Recife going into this match
America Mineiro record
- They have won 3 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nautico Recife record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
America Mineiro vs Nautico Recife head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
4America Mineiro wins
2Draws
3Nautico Recife wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Nautico Recife | America Mineiro | Brazil Serie B | 4-0 |
| 2021-01-12 | Nautico Recife | America Mineiro | Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2020-10-09 | America Mineiro | Nautico Recife | Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2017-08-12 | America Mineiro | Nautico Recife | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2017-05-13 | Nautico Recife | America Mineiro | Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2015-09-12 | America Mineiro | Nautico Recife | Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2015-06-05 | Nautico Recife | America Mineiro | Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2014-10-07 | Nautico Recife | America Mineiro | Serie B | 1-4 |
| 2014-05-31 | America Mineiro | Nautico Recife | Serie B | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
America Mineiro vs Nautico Recife odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.6%, draw 29.3%, away 35.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.66 |
| 1xBet | 2.64 | 3.10 | 2.65 |
| 888Sport | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.63 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.20 | 2.72 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.25 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.63 | 3.12 | 2.65 |
| Pinnacle | 2.68 | 3.28 | 2.78 |
| SBO | 2.41 | 3.08 | 2.54 |
| Superbet | 2.60 | 3.15 | 2.67 |
| Unibet | 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.60 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.61 ▲ +0.32
X
3.17 ▲ +0.01
2
2.65 ▼ -0.47
10 snapshots recorded, from .