Brazil Serie B · 2026-09-19T00:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 29

São Bernardo vs Atletico Goianiense

1 – 0 Full time

45′			RomissonPedro Vitor Ferreira da Silva
50′			Luiz Gustavo Oliveira da Silva
54′			Guilherme Lopes
58′			HenriqueGuilherme Costa Marques
58′			Daniel Nascimento Peixoto dos SantosJosé Domingos de Moraes Neto
65′			Felipe Garcia
66′			Pedro Gabriel Pereira LopesDaniel Davi Simão Roque
66′			Eduardo·da Silva AlbuquerqueLucas Eduardo·Lima da Silva
69′			Gustavo Coutinho Silva LopesJoão Pedro
69′			Felipe GarciaFabrício Daniel
78′			Cristiano Claudinei NogueiraMatheuzinho
78′			Guilherme LopesYuri
80′			Luiz Gustavo Oliveira da SilvaMarcão Silva

Estadio Primeiro de Maio, San Bernado do CampoReferee: Alex Gomes Stefano

São Bernardo

33%

Draw

30%

Atletico Goianiense

37%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

6	Shots	24
4	Shots on target	6
30	Possession %	70
2	Corners	10
11	Fouls	14
0	Offsides	2
6	Saves	3
224	Accurate passes	558

São Bernardo vs Atletico Goianiense overview

Garuda Lions analysis: São Bernardo vs Atletico Goianiense

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	São Bernardo	Draw	Atletico Goianiense
Model	27.3%	29.1%	43.7%
Market	34.8%	30.8%	34.4%
Final	32.9%	30.4%	36.7%
Edge	-7.5%	-1.8%	+9.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Atletico Goianiense

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 1.08.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices Atletico Goianiense below the model: +9.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

90%

2+ goals

72%

3+ goals

45%

No goals

10%

São Bernardo and Atletico Goianiense expected goals

São Bernardo

1.08

Atletico Goianiense

1.42

Total expected goals: 2.49

São Bernardo and Atletico Goianiense attack and defence ratings

São Bernardo

Attack

1.15 +15%

Defence

1.08 +8%

Atletico Goianiense

Attack

1.36 +36%

Defence

0.71 -29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

São Bernardo vs Atletico Goianiense: result vs prediction

São Bernardo 1 – 0 Atletico Goianiense

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Brazil Serie B

Vila Nova vs America Mineiro · 2026-09-18
Ceara v Novorizontino — match page · 2026-09-18
Sport Recife vs Juventude · 2026-09-19
Athletic Club v Botafogo SP — match page · 2026-09-19
Ponte Preta vs CRB — team news & stats · 2026-09-20
Goias vs Avai · 2026-09-20
Londrina v Fortaleza EC — match page · 2026-09-20
Cuiaba vs Nautico Recife · 2026-09-22

Before and after this match

São Bernardo, previous: America Mineiro – São Bernardo, 2026-09-14
São Bernardo, next: Novorizontino – São Bernardo, 2026-09-25
Atletico Goianiense, previous: Atletico Goianiense – Criciuma, 2026-09-13
Atletico Goianiense, next: Goias – Atletico Goianiense, 2026-09-26

São Bernardo vs Atletico Goianiense markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Atletico Goianiense	36.7%	2.72	+9.3%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	54.5%	1.83	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	51.2%	1.95	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	69.6%	1.44	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	56.4%	1.77	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	São Bernardo	32.9%
	Draw	30.4%
	Atletico Goianiense	36.7%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	45.5%
	Under 2.5	54.5%
Both teams to score	Yes	51.2%
	No	48.8%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	63.3%
	12 (either side)	69.6%
	X2 (draw or away)	67.1%
Handicap -1	Atletico Goianiense win	21.6%
	Push (exactly one goal)	22.0%
	Loss	56.4%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	13.9%
	0-1	10.5%
	0-0	9.5%

São Bernardo vs Atletico Goianiense stats

São Bernardo and Atletico Goianiense recent form

newest first

São Bernardo	WLWLDD
Atletico Goianiense	WWDWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

São Bernardo and Atletico Goianiense going into this match

league record before kick-off

São Bernardo record

They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Atletico Goianiense record

They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

São Bernardo vs Atletico Goianiense head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

1São Bernardo wins 0Draws 0Atletico Goianiense wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-05-24	Atletico Goianiense	São Bernardo	Brazil Serie B	0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

São Bernardo vs Atletico Goianiense odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.8%, draw 30.8%, away 34.4%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.66	2.95	2.69
Bet365	2.75	3.10	2.75
BetVictor	2.55	3.00	2.60
Betano	2.70	3.10	2.72
Betfair	2.63	3.10	2.63
Marathonbet	2.66	2.95	2.69
Pinnacle	2.78	3.07	2.79
SBO	2.54	2.92	2.54
William Hill	2.62	2.90	2.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.66 ▲ +0.33

X 3.00 ▼ -0.06

2 2.69 ▼ -0.36

8 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-15T08:10:02Z.