CAF Confederation Cup
·
Full time
·2nd Preliminary Round
Diarra
vs
ASC Kara
3 – 2 Full time
| 14′ | Diarra | ||
| 29′ | Diarra | ||
| 42′ | Diarra | ||
| 45′ | ASC Kara | ||
| 58′ | ASC Kara | ||
| 64′ | ASC Kara |
Diarra
43%
Draw
31%
ASC Kara
26%
Diarra vs ASC Kara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Diarra vs ASC Kara
| Probability | Diarra | Draw | ASC Kara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.4% | 30.5% | 26.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.4% | 30.5% | 26.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Diarra
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.98.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
89%
2+ goals
68%
3+ goals
40%
No goals
11%
Diarra and ASC Kara expected goals
Diarra
1.31
ASC Kara
0.98
Total expected goals: 2.29
Diarra and ASC Kara attack and defence ratings
Diarra
Attack
0.96 -4%
Defence
0.84 -16%
ASC Kara
Attack
1.20 +20%
Defence
0.98 -2%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Diarra vs ASC Kara: result vs prediction
Diarra 3 – 2 ASC Kara
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures
- Welwalo Adigrat Uni v Al Ahli Tripoli — match page
- Masr v Azam — match page
- Red Arrows vs Kaizer Chiefs — team news & stats
- Kitara vs Al Ahly — team news & stats
- ES Zarzis vs Réal Bamako — team news & stats
- AFAD vs CS Sfaxien — team news & stats
- Rayon Sports vs Black Bulls Maputo
- Korhogo v FAR Rabat — match page
Before and after this match
Diarra vs ASC Kara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Diarra | 43.4% | 2.31 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Diarra | 43.4% |
| Draw | 30.5% | |
| ASC Kara | 26.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.7% |
| No | 53.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Diarra win | 20.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 57.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.1% | |
| 0-0 | 11.5% |