Diarra
vs
ASC Kara
Garuda Lions Prediction: Diarra
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Diarra vs ASC Kara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Diarra vs ASC Kara
| Probability | Diarra | Draw | ASC Kara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.0% | 30.3% | 24.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 45.0% | 30.3% | 24.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Diarra
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.94.
Diarra vs ASC Kara match preview
Diarra enters the match against ASC Kara with a 45% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 30% and ASC Kara at 25%. The expected goals for Diarra are 1.35, compared to ASC Kara's 0.94, suggesting a potential edge for Diarra in terms of offensive output. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 12%.
In terms of recent form, Diarra has recorded a draw and a win in their last two matches, while ASC Kara has a mixed record of one win, two draws, and two losses in their last six games. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 40%, and both teams scoring is projected at 46%. The overall confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Diarra and ASC Kara expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.28
Diarra and ASC Kara attack and defence ratings
Diarra
ASC Kara
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures
Before and after this match
Diarra vs ASC Kara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Diarra | 45.0% | 2.22 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Diarra | 45.0% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| ASC Kara | 24.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.3% |
| No | 53.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Diarra win | 21.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 55.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | |
| 0-0 | 11.5% |