USM Alger
vs
Panthers
Garuda Lions Prediction: USM Alger
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.22.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
USM Alger vs Panthers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: USM Alger vs Panthers
| Probability | USM Alger | Draw | Panthers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.3% | 23.7% | 20.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 56.3% | 23.7% | 20.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why USM Alger
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
USM Alger vs Panthers match preview
USM Alger faces Panthers in the CAF Confederation Cup with a probability of 57% for a home victory, while the chances of a draw stand at 23% and Panthers at 20%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. The expectation for over 2.5 goals is 63%, and both teams scoring is projected at 61%.
In terms of expected goals, USM Alger is forecasted to score 2.05, while Panthers are expected to net 1.18. USM Alger's recent form shows a mixed bag with one loss, two wins, and three draws, while Panthers come off a win followed by a loss. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in these predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
USM Alger and Panthers expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.30
USM Alger and Panthers attack and defence ratings
USM Alger
Panthers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures
Before and after this match
USM Alger vs Panthers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | USM Alger | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | USM Alger | 56.3% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| Panthers | 20.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% |
| No | 41.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | USM Alger win | 34.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 43.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 8.9% |