China Super League
·
Full time
·Matchday 30
Shandong Luneng
vs
Chengdu Better City
3 – 2 Full time
Shandong Luneng
45%
Draw
24%
Chengdu Better City
31%
Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City
| Probability | Shandong Luneng | Draw | Chengdu Better City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.4% | 18.8% | 12.8% |
| Market | 37.9% | 25.4% | 36.7% |
| Final | 45.5% | 23.7% | 30.8% |
| Edge | +7.6% | -1.6% | -6.0% |
Why Shandong Luneng
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Shandong Luneng below our published probability: +7.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
87%
3+ goals
67%
No goals
4%
Shandong Luneng and Chengdu Better City expected goals
Shandong Luneng
2.44
Chengdu Better City
1.00
Total expected goals: 3.44
Shandong Luneng and Chengdu Better City attack and defence ratings
Shandong Luneng
Attack
1.39 +39%
Defence
0.95 -5%
Chengdu Better City
Attack
0.75 -25%
Defence
0.98 -2%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City: result vs prediction
Shandong Luneng 3 – 2 Chengdu Better City
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long — team news & stats
- Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island
- SHANGHAI SIPG v Shenyang Urban — match page
- Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye
- Qingdao Jonoon v Sichuan Jiuniu — match page
- Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda — team news & stats
- Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns
Before and after this match
Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shandong Luneng | 45.5% | 2.20 | +7.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Shandong Luneng win | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shandong Luneng | 45.5% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| Chengdu Better City | 30.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% |
| No | 41.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Shandong Luneng win | 47.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 31.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 9.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-1 | 8.6% |
Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City stats
Shandong Luneng and Chengdu Better City recent form
| Shandong Luneng |
WWDDWL |
| Chengdu Better City |
LLLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Shandong Luneng and Chengdu Better City going into this match
Shandong Luneng record
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
Chengdu Better City record
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 9 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Shandong Luneng wins
1Draws
6Chengdu Better City wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Chengdu Better City | Shandong Luneng | China Super League | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Chengdu Better City | Shandong Luneng | China Super League | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-20 | Shandong Luneng | Chengdu Better City | FA Cup | 1-3 |
| 2025-04-02 | Shandong Luneng | Chengdu Better City | China Super League | 0-3 |
| 2024-09-24 | Shandong Luneng | Chengdu Better City | FA Cup | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-17 | Shandong Luneng | Chengdu Better City | Super League | 3-0 |
| 2024-04-26 | Chengdu Better City | Shandong Luneng | Super League | 0-1 |
| 2023-08-08 | Shandong Luneng | Chengdu Better City | Super League | 0-1 |
| 2023-05-10 | Chengdu Better City | Shandong Luneng | Super League | 2-2 |
| 2022-11-21 | Chengdu Better City | Shandong Luneng | Super League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.9%, draw 25.4%, away 36.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.50 | 3.78 | 2.62 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.90 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.50 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.75 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.48 | 3.90 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.41 | 3.64 | 2.52 |
| Pinnacle | 2.56 | 3.70 | 2.56 |
| SBO | 2.19 | 3.42 | 2.32 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.46 ▲ +0.15
X
3.67 ▼ -0.22
2
2.54 ▼ -0.10
12 snapshots recorded, from .