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China Super League · Full time ·Matchday 29

Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng

3 – 5 Full time

8′Memet Imran
12′He Guan
18′Cryzan
24′Zheng Haoqian
27′Cryzan
35′Xu Haofeng
46′Memet ImranY. Li
46′Mijit MewlanR. Merkies
46′Zheng HaoqianJ. Cadiz
51′He Guan
59′Xu HaofengLi Shenyuan
66′Xie WennengYang Ruiqi
66′Chen PuShi Songchen
67′J. Cadiz
67′Zhang XiaobinLong Wei
75′Shi Songchen
75′J. Cadiz
76′Li Shenyuan
79′Peng XiaoChen Zeshi
83′V. Qazaishvili
84′J. XiongWang Jinxian
90′V. Qazaishvili

Wuhan Sports Centre, WuhanReferee: Haixin Li, China

Wuhan Three Towns 29%
Draw 23%
Shandong Luneng 48%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 18
5 Shots on target 9
59 Possession % 41
1 Corners 5
11 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 1
3 Saves 2
549 Accurate passes 353

Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityWuhan Three TownsDrawShandong Luneng
Model30.7%24.6%44.7%
Market28.4%22.9%48.7%
Final28.9%23.3%47.7%
Edge+0.6%+0.4%-1.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Shandong Luneng

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.49.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Wuhan Three To ↓ / Shandong Lunen → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 6% 1 11% 9% 5% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 64%
No goals 5%

Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng expected goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1.49
Shandong Luneng 1.83

Total expected goals: 3.32

Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng attack and defence ratings

Wuhan Three Towns

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Shandong Luneng

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng: result vs prediction

Wuhan Three Towns 3 – 5 Shandong Luneng

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

China Super League

Before and after this match

Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Shandong Luneng 47.7% 2.10 -1.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 64.5% 1.55 — —
Both teams to score Yes 66.0% 1.51 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.7% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.3% 1.81 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Wuhan Three Towns28.9%
Draw23.3%
Shandong Luneng47.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564.5%
Under 2.535.5%
Both teams to scoreYes66.0%
No34.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)52.3%
12 (either side)76.7%
X2 (draw or away)71.1%
Handicap -1Shandong Luneng win24.9%
Push (exactly one goal)19.8%
Loss55.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.8%
1-29.0%
2-17.4%

Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng stats

Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng recent form

newest first
Wuhan Three Towns LDLDDW
Shandong Luneng WDDWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Wuhan Three Towns and Shandong Luneng going into this match

league record before kick-off

Wuhan Three Towns record

  • They have won 5 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Shandong Luneng record

  • They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).

Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Wuhan Three Towns wins 4Draws 5Shandong Luneng wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-21Wuhan Three TownsShandong LunengFA Cup2-2
2026-05-24Shandong LunengWuhan Three TownsChina Super League3-3
2025-11-22Wuhan Three TownsShandong LunengChina Super League1-5
2025-06-25Shandong LunengWuhan Three TownsChina Super League3-1
2024-09-21Shandong LunengWuhan Three TownsSuper League0-0
2024-05-11Wuhan Three TownsShandong LunengSuper League1-2
2023-09-29Shandong LunengWuhan Three TownsSuper League2-1
2023-06-09Wuhan Three TownsShandong LunengSuper League1-1
2023-04-08Wuhan Three TownsShandong LunengSuper Cup2-0
2023-01-07Wuhan Three TownsShandong LunengFA Cup0-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 28.4%, draw 22.9%, away 48.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.38 4.06 1.98
Bet365 3.40 4.10 1.90
BetVictor 3.13 4.00 1.91
Betano 3.30 3.95 1.91
Betfair 3.25 4.20 1.90
Dafabet 3.45 4.10 1.96
Marathonbet 3.26 3.92 1.91
Pinnacle 3.28 4.11 1.93
William Hill 3.20 3.80 1.91

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.28 ▼ -0.02
X 4.06 ▲ +0.01
2 1.91 —

8 snapshots recorded, from .