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China Super League · Full time ·Matchday 29

Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan

3 – 4 Full time

20′Bruno Nazario
26′Pedro Maranhao
30′Chi Zhongguo
34′Gustavo
42′Gustavo
45′Abdugheni Abduhamit
46′Chi ZhongguoZhang Xizhe
46′Abdugheni AbduhamitU. Spajic
46′Yue Tze-NamWang Gang
65′Zhang Xizhe
69′Deng Jiefu
70′Bai YangZ. Jiang
73′Lin Liangming
78′Shi Chenglong
79′Liu JiahuiZheng Dalun
80′Zhong YihaoHe Chao
81′Zhang Yuning
88′Liu YixinFan Xulin
88′SerginhoCheng Xi
90′U. Spajic
90′Bruno Nazario
90′Bruno NazarioYin Congyao

Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, ZhengzhouReferee: Hyun Jae Choi, South Korea

Henan Jianye 28%
Draw 26%
Beijing Guoan 46%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 12
7 Shots on target 7
41 Possession % 59
5 Corners 4
12 Fouls 24
1 Offsides 2
3 Saves 4
243 Accurate passes 408

Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHenan JianyeDrawBeijing Guoan
Model21.4%27.4%51.1%
Market30.0%25.7%44.3%
Final27.9%26.1%46.0%
Edge-2.1%+0.4%+1.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Beijing Guoan

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.96.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Henan Jianye ↓ / Beijing Guoan → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 11% 10% 1 13% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 47%
No goals 9%

Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan expected goals

Henan Jianye 0.96
Beijing Guoan 1.60

Total expected goals: 2.55

Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan attack and defence ratings

Henan Jianye

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Beijing Guoan

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 0.62 -38%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan: result vs prediction

Henan Jianye 3 – 4 Beijing Guoan

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

China Super League

Before and after this match

Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Beijing Guoan 46.0% 2.17 +1.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 53.0% 1.89 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.3% 1.99 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.9% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.9% 2.05 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Henan Jianye27.9%
Draw26.1%
Beijing Guoan46.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547.0%
Under 2.553.0%
Both teams to scoreYes50.3%
No49.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)54.0%
12 (either side)73.9%
X2 (draw or away)72.1%
Handicap -1Beijing Guoan win27.7%
Push (exactly one goal)23.5%
Loss48.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.1%
0-111.2%
0-29.9%

Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan stats

Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan recent form

newest first
Henan Jianye LDDDDD
Beijing Guoan WWDDDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan going into this match

league record before kick-off

Henan Jianye record

  • They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Beijing Guoan record

  • They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
  • 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Henan Jianye wins 1Draws 5Beijing Guoan wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-23Beijing GuoanHenan JianyeChina Super League1-2
2025-12-06Beijing GuoanHenan JianyeFA Cup3-0
2025-09-12Henan JianyeBeijing GuoanChina Super League2-0
2025-04-25Beijing GuoanHenan JianyeChina Super League1-0
2024-11-02Beijing GuoanHenan JianyeSuper League1-1
2024-06-15Henan JianyeBeijing GuoanSuper League2-1
2023-08-04Beijing GuoanHenan JianyeSuper League3-1
2023-05-05Henan JianyeBeijing GuoanSuper League0-1
2022-11-04Beijing GuoanHenan JianyeSuper League2-1
2022-08-07Henan JianyeBeijing GuoanSuper League3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 30.1%, draw 25.7%, away 44.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.19 3.73 2.15
Bet365 3.00 3.70 2.15
BetVictor 2.90 3.75 2.05
Betano 3.20 3.45 2.10
Betfair 3.00 3.60 2.15
Dafabet 3.10 3.80 2.21
Marathonbet 3.08 3.60 2.07
Pinnacle 3.19 3.62 2.10
SBO 2.76 3.34 1.93
William Hill 3.10 3.40 2.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.10 ▼ -0.04
X 3.62 ▲ +0.02
2 2.10 ▼ -0.02

8 snapshots recorded, from .