Henan Jianye
vs
Beijing Guoan
Garuda Lions Prediction: Beijing Guoan
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan
| Probability | Henan Jianye | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.5% | 26.6% | 50.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 22.5% | 26.6% | 50.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Beijing Guoan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan match preview
Henan Jianye faces Beijing Guoan in the China Super League, with kickoff scheduled for October 24, 2026. According to our model, Henan Jianye has a 22% probability of winning, while Beijing Guoan stands at 51%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an expected goals tally of 1.04 for Henan Jianye and 1.67 for Beijing Guoan. Recent form shows Henan Jianye struggling with six matches without a win, while Beijing Guoan has secured two victories in their last three outings.
The probability of over 2.5 goals is 51%, and both teams are predicted to score 54% of the time. In their last three head-to-head encounters, Henan Jianye has won twice, while Beijing Guoan has one victory. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan attack and defence ratings
Henan Jianye
Beijing Guoan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG
- Chengdu Better City vs Dalian Zhixing — team news & stats
- Shenyang Urban vs Hangzhou Greentown
- Sichuan Jiuniu v Shanghai Shenhua — match page
- Wuhan Three Towns vs Shandong Luneng — team news & stats
- Qingdao Youth Island vs Yunnan Yukun
- Chongqing Tongliang Long v Qingdao Jonoon — match page
Before and after this match
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beijing Guoan | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.6% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.1% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Henan Jianye | 22.5% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Beijing Guoan | 50.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.6% |
| No | 46.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Beijing Guoan win | 28.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 49.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 0-1 | 10.0% | |
| 1-2 | 9.6% |
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan stats
Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan recent form
| Henan Jianye |
LDDDDD |
| Beijing Guoan |
WDDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan season so far
Henan Jianye record
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Beijing Guoan record
- They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Beijing Guoan | Henan Jianye | China Super League | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-12 | Henan Jianye | Beijing Guoan | China Super League | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-25 | Beijing Guoan | Henan Jianye | China Super League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.