Beijing Guoan
vs
Qingdao Youth Island
Garuda Lions Prediction: Beijing Guoan
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island
| Probability | Beijing Guoan | Draw | Qingdao Youth Island |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.3% | 22.9% | 12.7% |
| Market | 66.5% | 19.2% | 14.4% |
| Final | 65.9% | 20.1% | 14.0% |
| Edge | -2.1% | +3.8% | -1.6% |
Why Beijing Guoan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.43, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island match preview
Beijing Guoan is favored to win against Qingdao Youth Island, with a 67% probability according to our model. Their recent form shows a mix of results, including two wins in their last six matches. In contrast, Qingdao Youth Island has struggled, managing only one win in their last six games. The expected goals for Beijing Guoan stand at 1.93, while Qingdao Youth Island is projected to score 0.75.
The most likely scoreline is 2-0 in favor of Beijing Guoan, with this outcome having a 13% probability. Additionally, there is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams have a 46% likelihood of scoring at least once. In their last three encounters, Beijing Guoan has secured two wins and one draw against Qingdao Youth Island.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.69
Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island attack and defence ratings
Beijing Guoan
Qingdao Youth Island
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Henan Jianye v Tianjin Teda — match page
- Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu — team news & stats
- Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban
- Yunnan Yukun v Chongqing Tongliang Long — match page
- Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown — team news & stats
- Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua
- SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chengdu Better City — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beijing Guoan | 65.9% | 1.52 | -2.1% | 1.43 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.0% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Beijing Guoan win | 39.9% | 2.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beijing Guoan | 65.9% |
| Draw | 20.1% | |
| Qingdao Youth Island | 14.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.2% |
| No | 53.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Beijing Guoan win | 39.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 35.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.8% |
| 1-0 | 12.2% | |
| 1-1 | 10.9% |
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island stats
Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island recent form
| Beijing Guoan |
WDDDWW |
| Qingdao Youth Island |
LDDWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island season so far
Beijing Guoan record
- They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Qingdao Youth Island record
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Qingdao Youth Island | Beijing Guoan | China Super League | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Qingdao Youth Island | Beijing Guoan | China Super League | 1-3 |
| 2025-07-22 | Qingdao Youth Island | Beijing Guoan | FA Cup | 2-2 |
| 2025-06-17 | Beijing Guoan | Qingdao Youth Island | China Super League | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-11 | Qingdao Youth Island | Beijing Guoan | Super League | 2-2 |
| 2024-04-21 | Beijing Guoan | Qingdao Youth Island | Super League | 4-1 |
| 2023-07-26 | Qingdao Youth Island | Beijing Guoan | FA Cup | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 66.5%, draw 19.2%, away 14.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.43 | 5.11 | 6.62 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.80 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.42 | 4.70 | 6.20 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.43 | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.38 | 4.90 | 6.35 |
| Pinnacle | 1.43 | 5.12 | 6.45 |
| SBO | 1.33 | 4.27 | 5.32 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .