China Super League
·
Full time
·Matchday 28
Beijing Guoan
vs
Qingdao Youth Island
1 – 0 Full time
| 21′ | F. AbreuZhang Xizhe | ||
| 48′ | Meng Jingchao | ||
| 62′ | Meng JingchaoYang Zhanpeng | ||
| 67′ | Wang GangYue Tze-Nam | ||
| 67′ | Bai YangLi Lei | ||
| 78′ | Zhang Yuning | ||
| 82′ | Lin LiangmingDeng Jiefu | ||
| 90′ | Cao Yongjing |
Beijing Guoan
66%
Draw
20%
Qingdao Youth Island
14%
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 74 | Possession % | 26 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 3 |
| 515 | Accurate passes | 118 |
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island
| Probability | Beijing Guoan | Draw | Qingdao Youth Island |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.3% | 22.9% | 12.7% |
| Market | 66.4% | 19.3% | 14.3% |
| Final | 65.9% | 20.2% | 13.9% |
| Edge | -0.5% | +0.9% | -0.4% |
Why Beijing Guoan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
76%
3+ goals
50%
No goals
8%
Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island expected goals
Beijing Guoan
1.93
Qingdao Youth Island
0.75
Total expected goals: 2.68
Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island attack and defence ratings
Beijing Guoan
Attack
1.26 +26%
Defence
0.68 -32%
Qingdao Youth Island
Attack
0.80 -20%
Defence
0.86 -14%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island: result vs prediction
Beijing Guoan 1 – 0 Qingdao Youth Island
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Henan Jianye v Tianjin Teda — match page
- Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu — team news & stats
- Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban
- Yunnan Yukun v Chongqing Tongliang Long — match page
- Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown — team news & stats
- Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua
- SHANGHAI SIPG vs Chengdu Better City — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beijing Guoan | 65.9% | 1.52 | -0.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.1% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Beijing Guoan win | 39.8% | 2.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beijing Guoan | 65.9% |
| Draw | 20.2% | |
| Qingdao Youth Island | 13.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.2% |
| No | 53.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Beijing Guoan win | 39.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 35.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.8% |
| 1-0 | 12.2% | |
| 1-1 | 10.9% |
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island stats
Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island recent form
| Beijing Guoan |
WDDDWW |
| Qingdao Youth Island |
LDDWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island going into this match
Beijing Guoan record
- They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Qingdao Youth Island record
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
4Beijing Guoan wins
3Draws
0Qingdao Youth Island wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Qingdao Youth Island | Beijing Guoan | China Super League | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Qingdao Youth Island | Beijing Guoan | China Super League | 1-3 |
| 2025-07-22 | Qingdao Youth Island | Beijing Guoan | FA Cup | 2-2 |
| 2025-06-17 | Beijing Guoan | Qingdao Youth Island | China Super League | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-11 | Qingdao Youth Island | Beijing Guoan | Super League | 2-2 |
| 2024-04-21 | Beijing Guoan | Qingdao Youth Island | Super League | 4-1 |
| 2023-07-26 | Qingdao Youth Island | Beijing Guoan | FA Cup | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 66.4%, draw 19.3%, away 14.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.43 | 5.11 | 6.62 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.75 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.42 | 4.70 | 6.20 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.43 | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.38 | 4.90 | 6.35 |
| Pinnacle | 1.42 | 5.24 | 6.60 |
| SBO | 1.33 | 4.27 | 5.32 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.40 ▲ +0.05
X
4.83 ▼ -0.17
2
6.50 ▼ -0.59
13 snapshots recorded, from .