China Super League
·
Full time
·Matchday 30
Shanghai Shenhua
vs
Qingdao Youth Island
4 – 0 Full time
Shanghai Shenhua
64%
Draw
19%
Qingdao Youth Island
16%
Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island
| Probability | Shanghai Shenhua | Draw | Qingdao Youth Island |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.9% | 21.7% | 17.4% |
| Market | 65.4% | 18.7% | 15.8% |
| Final | 64.3% | 19.5% | 16.2% |
| Edge | -1.1% | +0.8% | +0.4% |
Why Shanghai Shenhua
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
85%
3+ goals
64%
No goals
5%
Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Youth Island expected goals
Shanghai Shenhua
2.17
Qingdao Youth Island
1.10
Total expected goals: 3.27
Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Youth Island attack and defence ratings
Shanghai Shenhua
Attack
1.49 +49%
Defence
1.12 +12%
Qingdao Youth Island
Attack
0.71 -29%
Defence
0.82 -18%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island: result vs prediction
Shanghai Shenhua 4 – 0 Qingdao Youth Island
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long — team news & stats
- SHANGHAI SIPG v Shenyang Urban — match page
- Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City — team news & stats
- Hangzhou Greentown vs Henan Jianye
- Qingdao Jonoon v Sichuan Jiuniu — match page
- Dalian Zhixing vs Tianjin Teda — team news & stats
- Yunnan Yukun vs Wuhan Three Towns
Before and after this match
Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shanghai Shenhua | 64.3% | 1.56 | -1.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.5% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.8% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.1% | 2.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shanghai Shenhua | 64.3% |
| Draw | 19.5% | |
| Qingdao Youth Island | 16.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% |
| No | 40.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Shanghai Shenhua win | 38.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 39.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.9% |
Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island stats
Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Youth Island recent form
| Shanghai Shenhua |
LWWWLW |
| Qingdao Youth Island |
DLLDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Youth Island going into this match
Shanghai Shenhua record
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Qingdao Youth Island record
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 7 penalties (57%).
Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
4Shanghai Shenhua wins
1Draws
0Qingdao Youth Island wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Qingdao Youth Island | Shanghai Shenhua | China Super League | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-17 | Qingdao Youth Island | Shanghai Shenhua | China Super League | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-10 | Shanghai Shenhua | Qingdao Youth Island | China Super League | 4-0 |
| 2024-06-30 | Qingdao Youth Island | Shanghai Shenhua | Super League | 0-1 |
| 2024-03-08 | Shanghai Shenhua | Qingdao Youth Island | Super League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.4%, draw 18.7%, away 15.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.45 | 5.05 | 6.30 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.75 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.42 | 4.85 | 5.80 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.46 | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.40 | 4.85 | 6.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.44 | 5.07 | 5.85 |
| SBO | 1.34 | 4.32 | 5.03 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.60 | 5.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.41 ▼ -0.03
X
4.92 ▲ +0.08
2
5.82 ▼ -0.03
12 snapshots recorded, from .