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FNL · ·Matchday 14

Vysočina Jihlava vs Karviná

Garuda Lions Prediction: Vysočina Jihlava

2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.37.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on Vysočina Jihlava

Stadion v Jiraskove ulici, JihlavaReferee: D. Lovetinsky

Vysočina Jihlava 41%
Draw 25%
Karviná 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Vysočina Jihlava wins
41%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
96%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
66%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

Vysočina Jihlava vs Karviná overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Vysočina Jihlava vs Karviná

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVysočina JihlavaDrawKarviná
Model51.9%23.3%24.8%
Market37.0%26.0%37.0%
Final40.7%25.3%34.0%
Edge+3.7%-0.7%-3.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Vysočina Jihlava

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.37.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Vysočina Jihlava below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.9% per unit staked (our 40.7% × 2.55 − 1).

Vysočina Jihlava vs Karviná match preview

Vysočina Jihlava enters this match with a strong recent form, having won four of their last six matches, alongside one draw. Their expected goals stand at 2.04, indicating a potent attacking threat. In contrast, Karviná has also shown resilience, with four wins in their last six games, but they suffered a defeat in their most recent outing. Their expected goals are lower at 1.37, suggesting they may struggle to match Jihlava's scoring potential.

The probabilities from our model indicate a 41% chance for Vysočina Jihlava to win, a 25% chance for a draw, and a 34% chance for Karviná to secure victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Jihlava, with both teams expected to score, as evidenced by a 66% likelihood for over 2.5 goals.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Vysočina Jihla ↓ / Karviná → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 10% 6% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 6% 4+ 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 4%

Vysočina Jihlava and Karviná expected goals

Vysočina Jihlava 2.04
Karviná 1.37

Total expected goals: 3.41

Vysočina Jihlava and Karviná attack and defence ratings

Vysočina Jihlava

Attack 1.38 +38%
Defence 0.79 -21%

Karviná

Attack 1.40 +40%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

FNL

Before and after this match

Vysočina Jihlava vs Karviná markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Vysočina Jihlava 40.7% 2.45 +3.7% 2.55
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.2% 1.51 — —
Both teams to score Yes 65.8% 1.52 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.7% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.1% 2.08 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Vysočina Jihlava40.7%
Draw25.3%
Karviná34.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.2%
Under 2.533.8%
Both teams to scoreYes65.8%
No34.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.0%
12 (either side)74.7%
X2 (draw or away)59.3%
Handicap -1Vysočina Jihlava win31.1%
Push (exactly one goal)20.8%
Loss48.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.2%
2-19.4%
2-06.9%
Compare prices for this pick

Vysočina Jihlava vs Karviná stats

Vysočina Jihlava and Karviná recent form

newest first
Vysočina Jihlava WWWDWW
Karviná DWWWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Vysočina Jihlava and Karviná season so far

league record

Vysočina Jihlava record

  • They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Karviná record

  • They have won 9 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Vysočina Jihlava vs Karviná head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

0Vysočina Jihlava wins 1Draws 1Karviná wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-03-12Vysočina JihlavaKarvináFNL2-2
2022-08-20KarvináVysočina JihlavaFNL2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Vysočina Jihlava vs Karviná odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.0%, draw 26.0%, away 37.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.41 3.42 2.41
Bet365 2.40 3.40 2.40
BetVictor 2.50 3.70 2.50
Betano 2.52 3.50 2.50
Betfair 2.40 3.50 2.40
Dafabet 2.55 3.55 2.55
Marathonbet 2.41 3.42 2.41
Pinnacle 2.46 3.65 2.48
SBO 2.35 3.33 2.34
William Hill 2.45 3.40 2.45
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Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.43 ▼ -0.19
X 3.46 ▲ +0.04
2 2.43 ▲ +0.03

8 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Vysočina Jihlava Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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