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Egypt Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 4

Al Ittihad vs Asyut Petrol

1 – 0 Full time

9′Mahmoud Emad
9′Mostafa Ibrahim
45′Ahmed Younes
46′J. ArumalaN. Alaa
48′Mohamed Toni
59′P. PhiriY. Wahid
59′C. C. BodneA. Khaled
63′M. TayebM. Abdel Hamid
65′M. EmadA. Atef
66′Mostafa Sadafa
74′N. Alaa
79′Ismail Ashraf
79′M. TonyK. Semakula
79′H. HassanJ. Ebuka
81′I. AshrafA. Morgan
81′I. AbbasA. Hamza
81′A. YounesM. Eid
90′John Okoye Ebuka

Borg El Arab Stadium, Alexandria

Al Ittihad 48%
Draw 31%
Asyut Petrol 21%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 7
2 Shots on target 4
55 Possession % 45
4 Corners 5
12 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 2
4 Saves 1
301 Accurate passes 242

Al Ittihad vs Asyut Petrol overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Al Ittihad vs Asyut Petrol

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAl IttihadDrawAsyut Petrol
Model38.7%35.8%25.5%
Market51.6%29.5%18.9%
Final48.3%31.1%20.6%
Edge-12.9%+6.3%+6.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Al Ittihad

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Al Ittihad ↓ / Asyut Petrol → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 19% 12% 1 16% 14% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 81%
2+ goals 53%
3+ goals 25%
No goals 19%

Al Ittihad and Asyut Petrol expected goals

Al Ittihad 0.99
Asyut Petrol 0.75

Total expected goals: 1.74

Al Ittihad and Asyut Petrol attack and defence ratings

Al Ittihad

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Asyut Petrol

Attack 0.74 -26%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Al Ittihad vs Asyut Petrol: result vs prediction

Al Ittihad 1 – 0 Asyut Petrol

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Egypt Premier League

Before and after this match

Al Ittihad vs Asyut Petrol markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Al Ittihad 48.3% 2.07 -12.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 74.7% 1.34 — —
Both teams to score No 65.5% 1.53 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.4% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 61.3% 1.63 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Al Ittihad48.3%
Draw31.1%
Asyut Petrol20.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.525.3%
Under 2.574.7%
Both teams to scoreYes34.5%
No65.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.4%
12 (either side)68.9%
X2 (draw or away)51.7%
Handicap -1Al Ittihad win15.3%
Push (exactly one goal)23.3%
Loss61.3%
Correct score (top 3)0-018.8%
1-016.0%
1-114.3%

Al Ittihad vs Asyut Petrol stats

Al Ittihad and Asyut Petrol recent form

newest first
Al Ittihad WLDDWL
Asyut Petrol LDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Al Ittihad vs Asyut Petrol head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Al Ittihad vs Asyut Petrol odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 51.6%, draw 29.5%, away 18.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.75 3.14 4.80
Bet365 1.75 2.90 4.75
BetVictor 1.75 3.00 4.50
Marathonbet 1.73 3.14 4.70
Pinnacle 1.83 3.11 5.26
William Hill 1.85 3.00 4.80

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.