Firpo
vs
Inca Aruba
Garuda Lions Prediction: Firpo
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Firpo vs Inca Aruba overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Firpo vs Inca Aruba
| Probability | Firpo | Draw | Inca Aruba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.9% | 19.8% | 11.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 68.9% | 19.8% | 11.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Firpo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Firpo vs Inca Aruba match preview
Firpo enters the match against Inca Aruba with a strong probability of winning at 69%, while Inca Aruba sits at 11%. The expected goals for Firpo stand at 2.25 compared to Inca Aruba's 0.82, suggesting a significant offensive advantage for Firpo. Recent form shows Firpo with three wins in their last six matches, while Inca Aruba has won only two of their last six.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring with a 12% probability. Additionally, there is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams scoring has a 51% likelihood. Historically, the last encounter between these teams ended in a draw, with Firpo having no wins against Inca Aruba in their last meeting.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Firpo and Inca Aruba expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.07
Firpo and Inca Aruba attack and defence ratings
Firpo
Inca Aruba
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Firpo vs Inca Aruba markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Firpo | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.7% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Firpo win | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Firpo | 68.9% |
| Draw | 19.8% | |
| Inca Aruba | 11.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.9% |
| No | 49.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 31.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Firpo win | 46.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 31.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-0 | 9.6% |
Firpo vs Inca Aruba stats
Firpo and Inca Aruba recent form
| Firpo |
WDWWDW |
| Inca Aruba |
LDWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Firpo and Inca Aruba season so far
Firpo record
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 14 matches.
Inca Aruba record
- They have won 4 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Firpo vs Inca Aruba head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Inca Aruba | Firpo | Primera Division | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.