Isidro Metapán
vs
Fuerte San Francisco
Garuda Lions Prediction: Isidro Metapán
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Isidro Metapán vs Fuerte San Francisco overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Isidro Metapán vs Fuerte San Francisco
| Probability | Isidro Metapán | Draw | Fuerte San Francisco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.0% | 28.0% | 19.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 53.0% | 28.0% | 19.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Isidro Metapán
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Isidro Metapán vs Fuerte San Francisco match preview
Isidro Metapán faces Fuerte San Francisco in a Primera Division match with Isidro Metapán holding a 53% probability of winning, compared to 19% for Fuerte San Francisco and 28% for a draw. The expected goals suggest Isidro Metapán will score 1.55 while Fuerte San Francisco is projected to net 0.84. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring with a 13% probability.
In terms of recent form, Isidro Metapán has recorded two wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, while Fuerte San Francisco has struggled with one win, two draws, and two losses. Historically, Fuerte San Francisco has dominated their recent encounters, winning four of the last five matches against Isidro Metapán. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Isidro Metapán and Fuerte San Francisco expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.39
Isidro Metapán and Fuerte San Francisco attack and defence ratings
Isidro Metapán
Fuerte San Francisco
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Isidro Metapán vs Fuerte San Francisco markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Isidro Metapán | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.9% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Isidro Metapán | 53.0% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Fuerte San Francisco | 19.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.9% |
| No | 54.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Isidro Metapán win | 28.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.5% | |
| Loss | 47.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-0 | 13.0% | |
| 2-0 | 11.0% |
Isidro Metapán vs Fuerte San Francisco stats
Isidro Metapán and Fuerte San Francisco recent form
| Isidro Metapán |
LWWDWW |
| Fuerte San Francisco |
WDLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Isidro Metapán and Fuerte San Francisco season so far
Isidro Metapán record
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
Fuerte San Francisco record
- They have won 1 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 14 matches.
Isidro Metapán vs Fuerte San Francisco head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Fuerte San Francisco | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Isidro Metapán | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 1-3 |
| 2026-03-01 | Fuerte San Francisco | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-09 | Isidro Metapán | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-07 | Fuerte San Francisco | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.