Municipal Limeño
vs
Firpo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Firpo
0 – 2 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Municipal Limeño vs Firpo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Municipal Limeño vs Firpo
| Probability | Municipal Limeño | Draw | Firpo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.3% | 24.6% | 59.1% |
| Market | 30.4% | 29.0% | 40.6% |
| Final | 26.9% | 27.9% | 45.2% |
| Edge | -14.2% | -4.4% | +18.5% |
Why Firpo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Firpo below the model: +18.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.26, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Municipal Limeño vs Firpo match preview
Municipal Limeño faces Firpo in their upcoming Primera Division match, with probabilities indicating a 27% chance of a Municipal Limeño win, a 28% likelihood of a draw, and a 45% chance for Firpo to secure victory. The expected goals for Municipal Limeño stand at 0.87, while Firpo is projected at 1.83. The most likely scoreline from the model suggests a 0-2 outcome, occurring with an 11% probability.
In terms of recent form, Municipal Limeño has struggled, recording four losses and one draw in their last six matches, while Firpo has shown improvement with three wins and two draws in their last six outings. The head-to-head record over the last five encounters favors Firpo, who has won three times compared to Municipal Limeño's one victory and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Municipal Limeño and Firpo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.70
Municipal Limeño and Firpo attack and defence ratings
Municipal Limeño
Firpo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Municipal Limeño vs Firpo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Firpo | 45.2% | 2.21 | +18.5% | 2.26 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.9% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Municipal Limeño | 26.9% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Firpo | 45.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.8% |
| No | 50.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Firpo win | 35.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 40.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 0-2 | 11.3% | |
| 0-1 | 11.3% |
Municipal Limeño vs Firpo stats
Municipal Limeño and Firpo recent form
| Municipal Limeño |
LLLLWD |
| Firpo |
DWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Municipal Limeño and Firpo season so far
Municipal Limeño record
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Firpo record
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 12 matches.
Municipal Limeño vs Firpo head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Firpo | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division | 2-0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Municipal Limeño | Firpo | Primera Division | 2-1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Firpo | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-22 | Firpo | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-20 | Municipal Limeño | Firpo | Primera Division | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Municipal Limeño vs Firpo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.4%, draw 29.0%, away 40.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.82 | 3.20 | 2.26 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.25 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
| Dafabet | 3.15 | 3.15 | 2.25 |
| Pinnacle | 3.17 | 3.10 | 2.21 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .