Platense
vs
Firpo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Firpo
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.11.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Firpo is the favourite, not a value bet.
Platense vs Firpo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Platense vs Firpo
| Probability | Platense | Draw | Firpo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.2% | 24.6% | 54.2% |
| Market | 23.4% | 27.0% | 49.5% |
| Final | 22.9% | 26.4% | 50.7% |
| Edge | -0.6% | -0.6% | +1.2% |
Why Firpo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.2% per unit staked (our 50.7% × 1.91 − 1).
Platense vs Firpo match preview
In the upcoming match between Platense and Firpo, the probabilities indicate a strong advantage for Firpo, with a 54% chance of winning compared to Platense's 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2 in favor of Firpo, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.11 for Platense and 1.87 for Firpo. Both teams have shown recent form that suggests a competitive match, with Platense recording three wins in their last six games, while Firpo has been more consistent with four wins in the same period.
Historically, Firpo has dominated this fixture, winning six of the last seven encounters, with Platense yet to secure a victory. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match stands at 57%, and both teams scoring is projected at 58%. With a confidence grade of C, the match promises to be intriguing, reflecting both teams' recent performances and their head-to-head record.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Platense and Firpo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.98
Platense and Firpo attack and defence ratings
Platense
Firpo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 17 fixtures
Before and after this match
Platense vs Firpo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Firpo | 50.7% | 1.97 | +1.2% | 1.91 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.8% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Platense | 22.9% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Firpo | 50.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% |
| No | 42.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Firpo win | 31.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 45.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 8.9% |
Platense vs Firpo stats
Platense and Firpo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Platense and Firpo season so far
Platense record
- They have won 5 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
Firpo record
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 14 matches.
Platense vs Firpo head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Firpo | Platense | Primera Division | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Platense | Firpo | Primera Division | 0-1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Firpo | Platense | Primera Division | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Firpo | Platense | Primera Division | 6-2 |
| 2025-11-23 | Platense | Firpo | Primera Division | 0-2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Platense | Firpo | Primera Division | 1-3 |
| 2025-08-24 | Firpo | Platense | Primera Division | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Platense vs Firpo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.4%, draw 27.0%, away 49.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.88 | 3.34 | 1.81 |
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
| Betano | 3.90 | 3.30 | 1.88 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| Dafabet | 3.95 | 3.40 | 1.87 |
| Marathonbet | 3.78 | 3.34 | 1.79 |
| Pinnacle | 4.07 | 3.40 | 1.81 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.10 | 1.83 |