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England FA Cup · Full time ·4th Round Qualifying

AFC Fylde vs Atherton Collieries

5 – 0 Full time

Mill Farm, Wisham

AFC Fylde 33%
Draw 22%
Atherton Collieries 45%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

AFC Fylde vs Atherton Collieries overview

Garuda Lions analysis: AFC Fylde vs Atherton Collieries

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAFC FyldeDrawAtherton Collieries
Model33.3%22.1%44.6%
Market———
Final33.3%22.1%44.6%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why Atherton Collieries

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

AFC Fylde ↓ / Atherton Colli → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 4% 1 8% 8% 6% 5% 2 7% 7% 5% 4% 3 4% 4% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 76%
No goals 3%

AFC Fylde and Atherton Collieries expected goals

AFC Fylde 1.83
Atherton Collieries 2.13

Total expected goals: 3.96

AFC Fylde and Atherton Collieries attack and defence ratings

AFC Fylde

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 1.22 +22%

Atherton Collieries

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

AFC Fylde vs Atherton Collieries: result vs prediction

AFC Fylde 5 – 0 Atherton Collieries

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

AFC Fylde vs Atherton Collieries markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atherton Collieries 44.6% 2.24 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 75.6% 1.32 — —
Both teams to score Yes 74.7% 1.34 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.9% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.3% 1.81 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2AFC Fylde33.3%
Draw22.1%
Atherton Collieries44.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575.6%
Under 2.524.4%
Both teams to scoreYes74.7%
No25.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)55.4%
12 (either side)77.9%
X2 (draw or away)66.7%
Handicap -1Atherton Collieries win26.3%
Push (exactly one goal)18.4%
Loss55.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-18.2%
1-27.9%
2-27.2%

AFC Fylde vs Atherton Collieries stats

AFC Fylde and Atherton Collieries recent form

newest first
AFC Fylde LDWL
Atherton Collieries WDWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.

AFC Fylde vs Atherton Collieries head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

AFC Fylde vs Atherton Collieries odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.