Harrogate Town
vs
Bury
3 – 1 Full time
Harrogate Town vs Bury overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Harrogate Town vs Bury
| Probability | Harrogate Town | Draw | Bury |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.0% | 24.8% | 56.1% |
| Market | 55.1% | 23.0% | 21.9% |
| Final | 46.1% | 23.5% | 30.5% |
| Edge | -36.1% | +1.8% | +34.2% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Harrogate Town and Bury expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Harrogate Town and Bury attack and defence ratings
Harrogate Town
Bury
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Harrogate Town vs Bury: result vs prediction
Harrogate Town 3 – 1 Bury
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
Before and after this match
Harrogate Town vs Bury markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Harrogate Town | 46.1% | 2.17 | -36.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 81.0% | 1.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Harrogate Town | 46.1% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Bury | 30.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% |
| No | 46.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Harrogate Town win | 7.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 12.0% | |
| Loss | 81.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 0-2 | 10.0% | |
| 1-2 | 9.9% |
Harrogate Town vs Bury stats
Harrogate Town and Bury recent form
| Harrogate Town |
DLWWLL |
| Bury |
DWWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Harrogate Town vs Bury head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Bury | Harrogate Town | England FA Cup | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Harrogate Town vs Bury odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.1%, draw 23.0%, away 21.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 3.95 | 4.24 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.75 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 3.95 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.73 | 4.50 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.60 | 3.95 | 4.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | 3.86 | 3.59 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .