Garuda Lions
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England FA Cup · Full time ·4th Round Qualifying

Sholing vs SE Dons

2 – 0 Full time

St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton

Sholing 49%
Draw 22%
SE Dons 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Sholing vs SE Dons overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sholing vs SE Dons

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySholingDrawSE Dons
Model40.6%25.7%33.8%
Market51.9%21.4%26.7%
Final49.1%22.4%28.5%
Edge-11.4%+4.3%+7.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Sholing

  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sholing ↓ / SE Dons → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 12% 8% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Sholing and SE Dons expected goals

Sholing 1.66
SE Dons 1.50

Total expected goals: 3.16

Sholing and SE Dons attack and defence ratings

Sholing

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 0.72 -28%

SE Dons

Attack 1.41 +41%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sholing vs SE Dons: result vs prediction

Sholing 2 – 0 SE Dons

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

Sholing vs SE Dons markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sholing 49.1% 2.04 -11.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.1% 1.64 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.9% 1.56 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.6% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.4% 1.68 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sholing49.1%
Draw22.4%
SE Dons28.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.1%
Under 2.538.9%
Both teams to scoreYes63.9%
No36.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.5%
12 (either side)77.6%
X2 (draw or away)50.9%
Handicap -1Sholing win21.3%
Push (exactly one goal)19.2%
Loss59.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.6%
2-18.8%
1-27.9%

Sholing vs SE Dons stats

Sholing and SE Dons recent form

newest first
Sholing WWWLWW
SE Dons WWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sholing vs SE Dons head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Sholing vs SE Dons odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 51.9%, draw 21.4%, away 26.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.76 4.15 3.38
Bet365 1.70 4.33 3.40
BetVictor 1.75 4.33 3.70
Marathonbet 1.74 4.15 3.32

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.75 —
X 4.24 —
2 3.39 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .