Spalding United
vs
Alvechurch
2 – 2 Full time
Spalding United vs Alvechurch overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Spalding United vs Alvechurch
| Probability | Spalding United | Draw | Alvechurch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.2% | 27.7% | 28.1% |
| Market | 51.0% | 26.0% | 23.0% |
| Final | 49.3% | 26.4% | 24.3% |
| Edge | -6.8% | +1.7% | +5.1% |
Why Spalding United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 1.18.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Spalding United and Alvechurch expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.70
Spalding United and Alvechurch attack and defence ratings
Spalding United
Alvechurch
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Spalding United vs Alvechurch: result vs prediction
Spalding United 2 – 2 Alvechurch
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
Before and after this match
Spalding United vs Alvechurch markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spalding United | 49.3% | 2.03 | -6.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spalding United | 49.3% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Alvechurch | 24.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% |
| No | 44.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Spalding United win | 22.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 55.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-0 | 9.0% |
Spalding United vs Alvechurch stats
Spalding United and Alvechurch recent form
| Spalding United |
WDWLWW |
| Alvechurch |
WWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Spalding United vs Alvechurch head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Spalding United | Alvechurch | Non League Premier - Southern Central | 3-0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Alvechurch | Spalding United | Non League Premier - Southern Central | 0-2 |
| 2025-04-12 | Spalding United | Alvechurch | Non League Premier - Southern Central | 0-0 |
| 2024-12-14 | Alvechurch | Spalding United | Non League Premier - Southern Central | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-05 | Spalding United | Alvechurch | FA Trophy | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Spalding United vs Alvechurch odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.0%, draw 26.0%, away 23.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 3.48 | 3.99 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 3.48 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .