Alvechurch
vs
Spalding United
4 – 0 Full time
Alvechurch vs Spalding United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alvechurch vs Spalding United
| Probability | Alvechurch | Draw | Spalding United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.4% | 26.9% | 31.7% |
| Market | 32.3% | 26.5% | 41.1% |
| Final | 34.6% | 26.6% | 38.8% |
| Edge | +9.1% | +0.3% | -9.4% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alvechurch and Spalding United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.91
Alvechurch and Spalding United attack and defence ratings
Alvechurch
Spalding United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Alvechurch vs Spalding United: result vs prediction
Alvechurch 4 – 0 Spalding United
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
Before and after this match
Alvechurch vs Spalding United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spalding United | 38.8% | 2.58 | -9.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.3% | 1.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alvechurch | 34.6% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Spalding United | 38.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% |
| No | 40.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Spalding United win | 14.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.1% | |
| Loss | 68.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-2 | 7.7% |
Alvechurch vs Spalding United stats
Alvechurch and Spalding United recent form
| Alvechurch |
DWWWLW |
| Spalding United |
DWDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alvechurch vs Spalding United head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Spalding United | Alvechurch | England FA Cup | 2-2 |
| 2026-02-14 | Spalding United | Alvechurch | Non League Premier - Southern Central | 3-0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Alvechurch | Spalding United | Non League Premier - Southern Central | 0-2 |
| 2025-04-12 | Spalding United | Alvechurch | Non League Premier - Southern Central | 0-0 |
| 2024-12-14 | Alvechurch | Spalding United | Non League Premier - Southern Central | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-05 | Spalding United | Alvechurch | FA Trophy | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alvechurch vs Spalding United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.3%, draw 26.5%, away 41.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.76 | 3.40 | 2.22 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 2.87 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.80 | 2.26 |
| Marathonbet | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.70 | 3.41 | 2.17 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .