Plymouth
vs
Alvechurch
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alvechurch
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.42.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Plymouth vs Alvechurch overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Plymouth vs Alvechurch
| Probability | Plymouth | Draw | Alvechurch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.2% | 24.0% | 48.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 27.2% | 24.0% | 48.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Alvechurch
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Plymouth vs Alvechurch match preview
Plymouth faces Alvechurch in the FA Cup with a probability model indicating a competitive match. Plymouth has a 27% chance of winning, while Alvechurch leads with a 49% probability. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-2 in favor of Alvechurch, occurring with a 9% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to an engaging match, with a 66% chance of both scoring and a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals.
In terms of expected goals, Plymouth is forecasted to score 1.42, while Alvechurch is projected at 1.94. Recent form shows Plymouth with two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Alvechurch has secured four wins, one draw, and one loss in the same timeframe. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a degree of uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Plymouth and Alvechurch expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.36
Plymouth and Alvechurch attack and defence ratings
Plymouth
Alvechurch
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
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- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Plymouth vs Alvechurch markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alvechurch | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plymouth | 27.2% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Alvechurch | 48.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.8% |
| No | 34.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alvechurch win | 28.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 51.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 2-1 | 6.8% |
Plymouth vs Alvechurch stats
Plymouth and Alvechurch recent form
| Plymouth |
WLLWWL |
| Alvechurch |
WDWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.