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England FA Cup · Full time ·4th Round Qualifying

Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch

0 – 4 Full time

Honeycroft, Usley

Uxbridge 29%
Draw 22%
AFC Hornchurch 49%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityUxbridgeDrawAFC Hornchurch
Model62.2%21.1%16.8%
Market18.4%21.7%59.9%
Final29.3%21.6%49.1%
Edge+43.8%-0.7%-43.1%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Uxbridge ↓ / AFC Hornchurch → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 10% 2 9% 10% 5% 3 7% 7% 4+ 6% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 65%
No goals 4%

Uxbridge and AFC Hornchurch expected goals

Uxbridge 2.25
AFC Hornchurch 1.11

Total expected goals: 3.37

Uxbridge and AFC Hornchurch attack and defence ratings

Uxbridge

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 0.85 -15%

AFC Hornchurch

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch: result vs prediction

Uxbridge 0 – 4 AFC Hornchurch

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures

England FA Cup

Before and after this match

Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 AFC Hornchurch 49.1% 2.04 -43.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 65.3% 1.53 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.0% 1.64 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 78.4% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 83.2% 1.20 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Uxbridge29.3%
Draw21.6%
AFC Hornchurch49.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565.3%
Under 2.534.7%
Both teams to scoreYes61.0%
No39.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)50.9%
12 (either side)78.4%
X2 (draw or away)70.7%
Handicap -1AFC Hornchurch win6.5%
Push (exactly one goal)10.3%
Loss83.2%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.8%
1-19.5%
2-08.8%

Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch stats

Uxbridge and AFC Hornchurch recent form

newest first
Uxbridge WWDWLL
AFC Hornchurch LLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Uxbridge vs AFC Hornchurch odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 18.4%, draw 21.7%, away 59.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.04 4.15 1.50
Bet365 4.50 4.20 1.53
BetVictor 5.25 4.33 1.53
Marathonbet 4.85 4.15 1.49

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.95 —
X 4.18 —
2 1.52 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .