AFC Hornchurch
vs
Blackpool
Garuda Lions Prediction: AFC Hornchurch
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.18.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
AFC Hornchurch vs Blackpool overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AFC Hornchurch vs Blackpool
| Probability | AFC Hornchurch | Draw | Blackpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.4% | 21.8% | 18.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 59.4% | 21.8% | 18.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why AFC Hornchurch
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 5 vs 1 for the opposition.
AFC Hornchurch vs Blackpool match preview
AFC Hornchurch enters this FA Cup match with a 59% probability of winning against Blackpool, who have a 19% chance according to our model. The expected goals suggest a strong offensive performance from Hornchurch, with an expected 2.19 goals compared to Blackpool's 1.18. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%.
Both teams have shown varying recent form, with Hornchurch recording two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Blackpool has struggled with one win, three losses, and one draw. The model indicates a 65% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance that both teams will score, reflecting an expectation for an engaging match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AFC Hornchurch and Blackpool expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.36
AFC Hornchurch and Blackpool attack and defence ratings
AFC Hornchurch
Blackpool
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats
- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats
- Oxford United vs Stevenage
- Bradford v Marine — match page
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats
- Port Vale vs Scunthorpe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
AFC Hornchurch vs Blackpool markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Hornchurch | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.3% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.6% | 2.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Hornchurch | 59.4% |
| Draw | 21.8% | |
| Blackpool | 18.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.3% |
| No | 37.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | AFC Hornchurch win | 37.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 40.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 8.3% |
AFC Hornchurch vs Blackpool stats
AFC Hornchurch and Blackpool recent form
| AFC Hornchurch |
WLLDW |
| Blackpool |
LWLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 5 completed matches.