Wealdstone
vs
Worthing
3 – 0 Full time
Wealdstone vs Worthing overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Wealdstone vs Worthing
| Probability | Wealdstone | Draw | Worthing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.7% | 23.7% | 41.5% |
| Market | 36.8% | 25.8% | 37.4% |
| Final | 36.3% | 25.3% | 38.4% |
| Edge | -2.0% | -2.1% | +4.1% |
Why Worthing
- The market prices Worthing below the model: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Wealdstone and Worthing expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.58
Wealdstone and Worthing attack and defence ratings
Wealdstone
Worthing
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Wealdstone vs Worthing: result vs prediction
Wealdstone 3 – 0 Worthing
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other 4th Round Qualifying fixtures
Wealdstone vs Worthing markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Worthing | 38.4% | 2.60 | +4.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wealdstone | 36.3% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Worthing | 38.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.1% |
| No | 29.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Worthing win | 23.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 58.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | |
| 2-1 | 7.6% |
Wealdstone vs Worthing stats
Wealdstone and Worthing recent form
| Wealdstone |
LWWLWW |
| Worthing |
LWWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Wealdstone vs Worthing head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Worthing | Wealdstone | National League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Wealdstone vs Worthing odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.8%, draw 25.8%, away 37.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.43 | 3.46 | 2.39 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
| Marathonbet | 2.43 | 3.46 | 2.39 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .