Dover
vs
Wealdstone
Garuda Lions Prediction: Wealdstone
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Dover vs Wealdstone overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dover vs Wealdstone
| Probability | Dover | Draw | Wealdstone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.7% | 23.8% | 39.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 36.7% | 23.8% | 39.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Wealdstone
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Dover vs Wealdstone match preview
Dover faces Wealdstone in the FA Cup with both teams showing contrasting recent form. Dover has recorded three wins, two losses, and a draw in their last six matches, while Wealdstone has achieved four wins and two losses during the same period. The probabilities from our model suggest a close contest, with Dover at 37%, a draw at 24%, and Wealdstone slightly favored at 39%.
The expected goals indicate a competitive match, with Dover projected to score 1.75 and Wealdstone 1.82. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. Additionally, there is a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 69%, and both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 70%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dover and Wealdstone expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.57
Dover and Wealdstone attack and defence ratings
Dover
Wealdstone
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Oxford United vs Stevenage
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Before and after this match
Dover vs Wealdstone markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wealdstone | 39.5% | 2.53 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dover | 36.7% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Wealdstone | 39.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.2% |
| No | 29.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Wealdstone win | 21.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 60.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 1-2 | 8.1% | |
| 2-1 | 7.8% |
Dover vs Wealdstone stats
Dover and Wealdstone recent form
| Dover |
WWWLLD |
| Wealdstone |
WLWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.