Ligue 2 · 2026-10-12T18:45:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 8

Dijon vs Metz

4 – 2 Full time

19′			H. Vargas Ríos
23′			Jean Ruiz
24′			Ange Lago
32′			Júlio Tavares
44′			Pape Moussa Fall
51′			Believe MunongoAbdourahmane Mbodj
62′			Ange LagoAlexis Ntamack
62′			H. Vargas RíosBrandon Nsimba Ndezi
62′			Florian Miguel
66′			Florian MiguelMorgan Bokele Mputu
66′			Giorgi AbuashviliIbou Sane
69′			Quentin Bernard
72′			Cristian Castro
76′			Adel LembezatSamy Chouchane
76′			Júlio TavaresTyris Dong
84′			Boubacar DialloLuis Puleri
84′			Bouna SarrBryan Rigobert Song Bahanag
84′			Maxime ColinAbdoulaye Agne Ba
88′			Pape Moussa Fall

Stade Gaston-Gérard, DijonReferee: Marc Bollengier

Dijon

38%

Draw

27%

Metz

36%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

17	Shots	13
7	Shots on target	4
40	Possession %	60
3	Corners	3
17	Fouls	17
2	Offsides	5
2	Saves	3
301	Accurate passes	497

Dijon vs Metz overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Dijon vs Metz

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Dijon	Draw	Metz
Model	47.9%	25.5%	26.6%
Market	34.0%	26.9%	39.0%
Final	37.5%	26.6%	35.9%
Edge	+3.5%	-0.4%	-3.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Dijon

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.27.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Dijon below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

94%

2+ goals

82%

3+ goals

59%

No goals

Dijon and Metz expected goals

Dijon

1.77

Metz

1.27

Total expected goals: 3.04

Dijon and Metz attack and defence ratings

Dijon

Attack

1.23 +23%

Defence

1.05 +5%

Metz

Attack

1.00 +0%

Defence

1.09 +9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Dijon vs Metz: result vs prediction

Dijon 4 – 2 Metz

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Ligue 2

Montpellier vs Grenoble · 2026-10-09
Nancy v Guingamp — match page · 2026-10-09
Sochaux vs Boulogne — team news & stats · 2026-10-09
PAU vs Laval · 2026-10-09
Dunkerque v Annecy — match page · 2026-10-09
Nantes vs Reims — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 · 2026-10-10
Saint-Etienne v Rodez — match page · 2026-10-10

Before and after this match

Dijon, previous: Annecy v Dijon analysis
Dijon, next: Reims vs Dijon prediction
Metz, previous: Metz – Saint-Etienne, 2026-09-19
Metz, next: Metz – Sochaux, 2026-10-17

Dijon vs Metz markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Dijon	37.5%	2.67	+3.5%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58.5%	1.71	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	60.8%	1.65	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	73.4%	1.36	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	52.1%	1.92	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Dijon	37.5%
	Draw	26.6%
	Metz	35.9%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58.5%
	Under 2.5	41.5%
Both teams to score	Yes	60.8%
	No	39.2%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	64.1%
	12 (either side)	73.4%
	X2 (draw or away)	62.5%
Handicap -1	Dijon win	26.7%
	Push (exactly one goal)	21.2%
	Loss	52.1%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	11.8%
	2-1	9.5%
	2-0	7.5%

Dijon vs Metz stats

Dijon and Metz recent form

newest first

Dijon	WWDLDL
Metz	DLWDDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Dijon and Metz going into this match

league record before kick-off

Dijon record

They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Metz record

They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Dijon vs Metz head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

2Dijon wins 4Draws 3Metz wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2023-02-18	Dijon	Metz	Ligue 2	0-0
2022-08-27	Metz	Dijon	Ligue 2	1-2
2021-05-02	Dijon	Metz	Ligue 1	1-5
2020-11-08	Metz	Dijon	Ligue 1	1-1
2020-08-07	Dijon	Metz	Friendlies Clubs	1-2
2019-12-21	Dijon	Metz	Ligue 1	2-2
2018-01-13	Dijon	Metz	Ligue 1	1-1
2017-10-21	Metz	Dijon	Ligue 1	1-2
2017-02-08	Metz	Dijon	Ligue 1	2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Dijon vs Metz odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.0%, draw 26.9%, away 39.0%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.66	3.54	2.40
Bet365	2.60	3.20	2.38
BetVictor	2.80	3.60	2.30
Betano	2.82	3.45	2.47
Betfair	2.80	3.40	2.38
Dafabet	2.80	3.50	2.44
Marathonbet	2.66	3.54	2.40
Pinnacle	2.88	3.54	2.45
SBO	2.57	3.15	2.25
William Hill	2.70	3.30	2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.75 ▲ +0.01

X 3.48 ▼ -0.03

2 2.40 ▲ +0.02

20 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-03T08:10:03Z.