Dijon
vs
Metz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Dijon
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Dijon vs Metz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dijon vs Metz
| Probability | Dijon | Draw | Metz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.7% | 25.6% | 26.8% |
| Market | 36.0% | 26.5% | 37.5% |
| Final | 38.9% | 26.3% | 34.8% |
| Edge | +11.7% | -1.0% | -10.7% |
Why Dijon
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.27.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Dijon below the model: +11.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.82, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Dijon vs Metz match preview
Dijon faces Metz in a Ligue 2 clash on October 12, 2026, with both teams showing mixed recent form. Dijon has recorded two wins, a draw, and three losses in their last six matches, while Metz has drawn three times and lost twice, with one win in the same period. The model suggests a close contest, giving Dijon a 37% chance of winning, while Metz stands at 36%, with a 26% probability of a draw.
The expected goals indicate a slight advantage for Dijon at 1.76 compared to Metz's 1.28. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 58%, and both teams are expected to score in 61% of scenarios. The most probable scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Dijon, occurring in 9% of predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dijon and Metz expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.04
Dijon and Metz attack and defence ratings
Dijon
Metz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dijon vs Metz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dijon | 38.9% | 2.57 | +11.7% | 2.82 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dijon | 38.9% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Metz | 34.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.7% |
| No | 39.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dijon win | 26.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 52.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.4% |
Dijon vs Metz stats
Dijon and Metz recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dijon and Metz season so far
Dijon record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Metz record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
Dijon vs Metz head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Dijon vs Metz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.0%, draw 26.5%, away 37.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.56 | 3.54 | 2.49 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.82 | 3.45 | 2.47 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.56 | 3.54 | 2.49 |
| Pinnacle | 2.61 | 3.51 | 2.59 |
| SBO | 2.52 | 3.13 | 2.30 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .