Saint-Etienne
vs
Rodez
Garuda Lions Prediction: Saint-Etienne
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Saint-Etienne vs Rodez overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Saint-Etienne vs Rodez
| Probability | Saint-Etienne | Draw | Rodez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.9% | 17.6% | 18.5% |
| Market | 67.1% | 19.0% | 14.0% |
| Final | 66.3% | 18.6% | 15.1% |
| Edge | -3.1% | -1.4% | +4.5% |
Why Saint-Etienne
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.88 vs 1.57.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.43, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Saint-Etienne vs Rodez match preview
Saint-Etienne is set to face Rodez in a Ligue 2 clash, with kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. The match sees Saint-Etienne holding a strong probability of winning at 66%, while Rodez has a 15% chance of victory and a 19% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals for Saint-Etienne stand at 2.87 compared to Rodez's 1.57, suggesting a potentially high-scoring encounter, with an 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 75% probability that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Saint-Etienne has shown resilience with three wins in their last six matches, while Rodez has struggled, recording three losses in their last six outings. The head-to-head record in the last three meetings shows a competitive balance, with each team securing one win and one draw. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Saint-Etienne and Rodez expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.45
Saint-Etienne and Rodez attack and defence ratings
Saint-Etienne
Rodez
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Saint-Etienne vs Rodez markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Saint-Etienne | 66.3% | 1.51 | -3.1% | 1.43 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.9% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.9% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Saint-Etienne win | 45.2% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Saint-Etienne | 66.3% |
| Draw | 18.6% | |
| Rodez | 15.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.2% |
| No | 24.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Saint-Etienne win | 45.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 35.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.6% |
| 3-1 | 7.3% | |
| 2-2 | 6.0% |
Saint-Etienne vs Rodez stats
Saint-Etienne and Rodez recent form
| Saint-Etienne |
DLWWWW |
| Rodez |
LLLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Saint-Etienne and Rodez season so far
Saint-Etienne record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Rodez record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
Saint-Etienne vs Rodez head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Saint-Etienne | Rodez | Ligue 2 | 0-0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Rodez | Saint-Etienne | Ligue 2 | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Saint-Etienne | Rodez | Ligue 2 | 4-0 |
| 2024-05-24 | Saint-Etienne | Rodez | Ligue 2 | 2-0 |
| 2024-05-10 | Saint-Etienne | Rodez | Ligue 2 | 1-1 |
| 2023-08-12 | Rodez | Saint-Etienne | Ligue 2 | 2-1 |
| 2023-04-29 | Rodez | Saint-Etienne | Ligue 2 | 1-1 |
| 2022-11-12 | Saint-Etienne | Rodez | Ligue 2 | 0-2 |
| 2022-10-29 | Saint-Etienne | Rodez | Coupe de France | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Saint-Etienne vs Rodez odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 67.1%, draw 19.0%, away 14.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.39 | 5.00 | 6.65 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.42 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.43 | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.38 | 5.00 | 6.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.39 | 4.89 | 7.21 |
| SBO | 1.34 | 4.45 | 5.80 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .