Rodez
vs
Montpellier
Garuda Lions Prediction: Montpellier
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Rodez vs Montpellier overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rodez vs Montpellier
| Probability | Rodez | Draw | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.9% | 28.1% | 47.0% |
| Market | 33.7% | 28.1% | 38.2% |
| Final | 31.5% | 28.1% | 40.4% |
| Edge | -8.8% | -0.0% | +8.8% |
Why Montpellier
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Montpellier below the model: +8.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Rodez vs Montpellier match preview
Rodez faces Montpellier in a Ligue 2 matchup where the probabilities indicate a competitive contest. Montpellier has a 40% chance of winning, while Rodez stands at 31%, and a draw is estimated at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring with a 10% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Rodez will score around 1.06, while Montpellier is forecasted to net approximately 1.53.
Recent form reveals Rodez struggling with four consecutive losses followed by a draw and a win, while Montpellier shows a more positive trend with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. In their last two head-to-head encounters, both teams have secured one victory each, indicating a balanced rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rodez and Montpellier expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.58
Rodez and Montpellier attack and defence ratings
Rodez
Montpellier
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rodez vs Montpellier markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Montpellier | 40.4% | 2.48 | +8.8% | 2.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rodez | 31.5% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Montpellier | 40.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% |
| No | 47.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Montpellier win | 24.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 53.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 0-1 | 10.4% | |
| 1-2 | 9.3% |
Rodez vs Montpellier stats
Rodez and Montpellier recent form
| Rodez |
LLLLDW |
| Montpellier |
WDWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rodez and Montpellier season so far
Rodez record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
Montpellier record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Rodez vs Montpellier head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Rodez | Montpellier | Ligue 2 | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Montpellier | Rodez | Ligue 2 | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rodez vs Montpellier odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.1%, draw 28.1%, away 37.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.78 | 3.20 | 2.48 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.87 | 3.25 | 2.52 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.45 | 2.49 |
| Marathonbet | 2.78 | 3.20 | 2.48 |
| Pinnacle | 2.91 | 3.03 | 2.62 |
| SBO | 2.56 | 3.19 | 2.24 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .