Panserraikos
vs
Apollon Pontou
Garuda Lions Prediction: Panserraikos
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 1.02.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Panserraikos is the favourite, not a value bet.
Panserraikos vs Apollon Pontou overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Panserraikos vs Apollon Pontou
| Probability | Panserraikos | Draw | Apollon Pontou |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.5% | 29.8% | 26.7% |
| Market | 70.8% | 19.0% | 10.3% |
| Final | 63.9% | 21.7% | 14.4% |
| Edge | -6.8% | +2.7% | +4.1% |
Why Panserraikos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 1.02.
Best available price on the pick: 1.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -16.2% per unit staked (our 63.9% × 1.31 − 1).
Panserraikos vs Apollon Pontou match preview
Panserraikos faces Apollon Pontou in a Super League 2 clash, with a projected probability of 64% for a Panserraikos victory, while a draw stands at 22% and an Apollon Pontou win at 14%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, occurring with an 11% likelihood. Expected goals are calculated at 1.37 for Panserraikos and 1.02 for Apollon Pontou, suggesting a tighter contest than the probabilities might indicate.
In terms of recent form, Panserraikos has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Apollon Pontou has two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. Historically, Panserraikos has a strong advantage over Apollon Pontou, winning 6 of their last 8 encounters, with no draws and 2 wins for Apollon Pontou.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Panserraikos and Apollon Pontou expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.39
Panserraikos and Apollon Pontou attack and defence ratings
Panserraikos
Apollon Pontou
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Panserraikos vs Apollon Pontou markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panserraikos | 63.9% | 1.56 | -6.8% | 1.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.6% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panserraikos | 63.9% |
| Draw | 21.7% | |
| Apollon Pontou | 14.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.0% |
| No | 51.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Panserraikos win | 21.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 56.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | |
| 0-0 | 10.4% |
Panserraikos vs Apollon Pontou stats
Panserraikos and Apollon Pontou recent form
| Panserraikos |
LLWDWD |
| Apollon Pontou |
LLLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Panserraikos and Apollon Pontou season so far
Panserraikos record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Apollon Pontou record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Panserraikos vs Apollon Pontou head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-06 | Panserraikos | Apollon Pontou | Super League 2 | 3-0 |
| 2023-01-12 | Apollon Pontou | Panserraikos | Cup | 0-1 |
| 2023-01-03 | Apollon Pontou | Panserraikos | Super League 2 | 0-2 |
| 2022-12-16 | Panserraikos | Apollon Pontou | Cup | 3-0 |
| 2022-03-30 | Apollon Pontou | Panserraikos | Super League 2 | 1-0 |
| 2021-12-29 | Panserraikos | Apollon Pontou | Super League 2 | 2-4 |
| 2021-06-20 | Panserraikos | Apollon Pontou | Football League | 2-0 |
| 2021-04-28 | Apollon Pontou | Panserraikos | Football League | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Panserraikos vs Apollon Pontou odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.8%, draw 19.0%, away 10.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.29 | 4.75 | 8.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.27 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| Betano | 1.31 | 4.55 | 9.25 |
| Betfair | 1.29 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.30 | 4.90 | 10.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.28 | 4.75 | 7.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.25 | 4.88 | 10.91 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 4.60 | 8.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .